Trump's Kharg Island gambit: A high-stakes lever to force Iran's hand

US President Donald Trump is reportedly weighing plans to occupy Iran's Kharg Island, a key oil export hub, in a bid to compel Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping – a move that could further inflame tensions and compound uncertainty in a historic oil supply crisis.

The prospect of a ground assault has grown as Washington is reportedly sending more amphibious forces to the region, even as Trump said he was considering "winding down" military operations on Friday. Earlier, a White House official said US forces could seize Kharg Island at any time if ordered by the president, underscoring Washington's readiness to act.

What to know about the island

Kharg Island, a small landmass in the northern Persian Gulf about 30 km off Iran's coast, serves as the primary terminal for the country's crude exports. It handles roughly 90% of Iran's oil shipments, with pipelines connecting it directly to major onshore fields and facilities capable of loading supertankers. The island's role makes it central to Iran's government revenue and economic stability under heavy sanctions.

In one post on social media following US strikes earlier this month, Trump said military targets on the island had been "obliterated" while oil infrastructure was deliberately spared "for reasons of decency." He warned that any further Iranian interference with shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would prompt reconsideration of that restraint.

The Islamic Republic's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which came in retaliation for US-Israeli attacks, has severely disrupted global energy flows since late February. Tanker traffic has slowed dramatically, pushing oil prices higher and straining economies dependent on Gulf supplies. The country has shown no sign of easing its blockade, though Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Japan's Kyodo News on Friday that the strait was "closed only to ships belonging to our enemies, countries that attack us."

US officials view control over the oil hub as a potential lever to force Tehran to back down. By occupying or blockading the island, Washington could cut off Iran's main source of export income, creating acute pressure on Tehran to restore open passage in the strait. But such a move risks driving energy prices even higher – a cost Trump may balk at. Reports indicate the thinking centers on a limited operation that avoids prolonged occupation but demonstrates resolve.

Will the US occupy the island?

Recent US military actions have laid the groundwork for any potential takeover. In mid-March, US forces carried out large-scale precision strikes, hitting more than 90 Iranian military targets on the island, including radar sites, missile storage, naval mine facilities and other defenses.

Meanwhile, more amphibious forces are now heading to the region, including the USS Tripoli with elements of the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and the USS Boxer with elements of the 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit, carrying a combined total of roughly 4,500 Marines equipped for potential landing operations.

A ground assault on Kharg Island risks sparking significant domestic backlash, fueling rising anti-war sentiment and further alienating segments of Trump's support base that still back the military campaign. Within Trump's coalition, anti-interventionist advocates have expressed frustration, viewing deeper involvement as a betrayal of "America First" priorities focused on domestic issues over foreign wars. A recent Reuters/Ipsos survey suggested 55% of Americans don't support a ground deployment, while only 7% would support a large-scale attack by the US. 

Debate over the move is already intensifying, with some analysts arguing it makes tactical sense by avoiding troops on mainland Iran, while others contend that inserting forces would cross into full-scale invasion territory, exposing US troops to heavy casualties from Iranian missiles, drones and ground defenses. Holding even a small island against sustained counterattacks could mire the US in a costly, open-ended commitment reminiscent of past regional conflicts, former military officials say.

In Tehran, while officials have not directly responded to the prospect of a US takeover of Kharg Island, they warned that any further attacks on its oil infrastructure would prompt Iran to destroy all energy facilities of any country involved.