Energy on edge: How the Iran conflict is shaking global markets

Editor's note: Adriel Kasonta, a special commentator for CGTN, is a London-based foreign affairs analyst and commentator. He is the founder of AK Consultancy and former chairman of the International Affairs Committee at Bow Group, the oldest conservative think tank in the UK. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

As the world edges toward the April 5 meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, the reverberations of the Iran conflict are no longer confined to the Middle East. More than a month after Israel and the United States launched joint military strikes against Iran, the shockwaves have spread across global market, tightening energy supplies, unsettling commodity prices, and reinforcing a stark reality of globalization: war anywhere fuels inflation everywhere.

The immediate headline – rising oil prices – captures only part of the story. This is not a simple supply shock, but a multi-layered disruption affecting energy, industrial inputs, supply chains, and investor confidence. For economies still recovering from pandemic-era dislocations and grappling with elevated borrowing costs, the timing could hardly be worse.

Crude prices have climbed steadily since the outbreak of hostilities. Brent crude has approached levels last seen in the immediate aftermath of Russia-Ukraine conflict, driving up fuel costs and renewed inflationary pressure across Europe and Asia. Markets are responding not only to current supply constraints but also pricing in risks of escalation, particularly disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of the world's oil flows.

The paradox is striking. A conflict framed in terms of security has instead exposed the fragility of the global energy system, amplifying the very vulnerabilities it was meant to contain.

The shock extends well beyond oil. Natural gas markets in Europe and Asia have become increasingly volatile as traders react to supply fears and shifting demand. With storage levels below seasonal norms and renewable energy unable to scale rapidly, spot prices have risen. For liquefied natural gas (LNG)-dependent economies in East Asia, this translates into higher import bills and mounting economic strain.

Industrial metals are also caught in the crossfire. Iran's role in producing copper, aluminum, and steel inputs means that any disruption to mining or transport quickly feeds into global prices. Rising metals costs ripple through manufacturing sectors, from construction to automotive production, complicating efforts by central banks to curb inflation without choking growth.

Financial markets have reacted with unease. Emerging market equities have declined sharply, while borrowing costs for commodity-dependent economies have risen gradually. Investor sentiment, already fragile, has weakened further amid fears that a wider regional escalation could disrupt trade routes, inflate energy bills and derail post-pandemic recovery.

Beyond the market data, the consequences are acutely human. In Sri Lanka, fuel queues have re-emerged as a daily reality. With depleted foreign reserves, the country is highly exposed to volatile oil prices. Rationing has intensified, economic activity has slowed, and essential services are under strain. Hospitals report diesel shortages for generators, while fishermen are left stranded ashore.

Bangladesh faces a similar challenge. Energy shortages and rising costs have forced intermittent shutdowns in the garment sector, a cornerstone of its export economy. Production delays threaten revenues and, more critically, the livelihoods of millions of workers, many of them women. A distant conflict is tightening the economic constraints on some of the world's most vulnerable populations.

The crisis presents a test for policymakers. Consumer countries may turn to familiar tools – releasing strategic reserves, subsidizing fuel, or pressuring producers to increase output. Yet these are temporary fixes. Reserves can cushion short-term shocks but cannot address structural vulnerabilities, while subsidies risk straining public finances and delaying the energy transition.

For producers, particularly within OPEC+, the dilemma is equally complex as some countries may need to balance price stability against revenue needs and geopolitical considerations. A significant increase in output could ease global pressure but at the cost of undermining fiscal plans tied to long-term economic diversification.

The conflict also exposes a deeper contradiction in climate policy. While reliance on fossil fuels is increasingly seen as a strategic liability, the immediate response to supply shocks often involves doubling down on oil and gas. Europe's renewed engagement with external gas suppliers and Asia's expanding LNG infrastructure highlight the tension between short-term energy security and long-term decarbonization goals.

If the crisis offers any clarity, it is in revealing systemic weakness. The global energy system, built on concentrated production, extended supply chains and geopolitical fault lines, has proven highly vulnerable to disruption. In this light, investments in renewable energy, efficiency and supply diversification are not merely environmental priorities but strategic necessities.

The Iran conflict has transformed an already fragile energy landscape into a more precarious one, with consequences that are economic, social, and political. The challenge for policymakers is to move beyond reactive measures and build resilience against future shocks.

As OPEC+ meets and markets watch, the question is whether this moment will be treated as a temporary disturbance or a genuine turning point. The answer will shape not only energy markets but the stability of economies and livelihoods worldwide.

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