Editor's note: Azhar Azam, a special commentator for CGTN, is a market and business analyst who writes on geopolitical affairs and regional conflicts. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Amid the Iran conflict's sharp impact on global energy prices, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) will meet on April 5 with a potential production increase on the agenda.

At a virtual session on March 1, the cartel's eight major oil-producing nations including Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day in April.

This comes as the fallout of the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran – particularly US "large-scale" bombing targeting facilities around Kharg Island, Iran's economic lifeline that processes 90% of the country's crude exports and handles 950 million barrels a year – has widened into a full‑blown disruption of the global energy system. The White House principal deputy press secretary's statement that the US military could "take out" Kharg Island has raised the risk of further escalation in the region.

The war has already established a de facto blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil supply and one-third of the global fertilizers used to produce almost half of the world's food pass. As shipping companies reroute vessels and insurers raise risk premiums – global crude prices have surged past $100 per barrel, fueling fears that prolonged instability in this critical corridor would elicit a severe supply shock.

US President Donald Trump has called on nations to help secure the vital shipping route by sending warships. Yet even countries with longstanding security ties to Washington have shown little enthusiasm to join the proposed multinational escort coalition in the Strait of Hormuz.

Instead, several of America's Asian and European allies including those from NATO have rebuffed the appeal and refused to become involved in a crisis they didn't create, exposing rifts within the US-led alliance system.

For the US, the economic consequences of this energy shock are far less than those faced by much of the rest of the world. Over the past decade, the "shale revolution" has transformed the US into one of the world's largest oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) producers and exporters. Higher global energy prices are actually helping the American energy sector, boosting the revenues of oil and LNG producers and exporters.

While the US remains largely insulated as a net energy exporter, many of its closest partners depend exceedingly on imported oil and gas. Japan and the Republic of Korea import about 95% and 70% of their crude, respectively, from the Middle East, much of which is shipped through the Strait of Hormuz. Even short-term disruptions in Gulf shipping routes can quickly ripple through their manufacturing supply chains.

The recent spike in oil prices could add inflationary pressure across these energy-dependent industrial economies, raising input costs for petrochemicals and other energy-intensive sectors.

The economic impact is significant for the EU too, a major net energy importer getting 57% of its total energy needs from abroad. The bloc relies heavily on seaborne oil shipments, particularly diesel and jet fuel from the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz, for fertilizers. With shipments at a near halt, European countries are scrambling to subsidize energy costs and shield the economy from one of the deepest energy crises ever.

For European economies still recovering from the energy shock triggered by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, a renewed surge in oil prices and lack of fertilizers could mean stagflation and food deprivation across the continent. A sustained interruption would tighten supply, push up energy costs higher and further complicate Europe's economic recovery at a time when growth remains fragile.

Australia, another key US partner in the Asia-Pacific, is also exposed to the spillover effects of the Iran conflict. While it is one of the world's largest exporters of LNG, Australia has just two operating refineries and gets roughly 80% of its refined petroleum products from overseas. 

This structural dependence leaves it vulnerable to swings in international oil prices and supply chain bottlenecks. As energy costs climb, transport and logistics expenses rise in tandem, feeding into broader price increases and trade imbalances. The paradox reveals that even US energy-exporting allies are not immune to the wider economic repercussions of instability in the Gulf.

Washington bears considerable responsibility for the crisis. By launching a military campaign against Iran in the midst of nuclear negotiations, it undermined the prospects of a diplomatic solution, destabilized the entire Middle East and disrupted energy flows – creating an energy crisis that may benefit segments of its domestic energy sector but betrays allies by imposing significant economic costs on them through inflation, higher energy costs and trade shocks.

In effect, the US has weaponized global energy markets, turning its military leverage into economic advantage for itself while its strikes on Iran have ignited a supply squeeze that is reverberating across the global economy, leaving allies exposed.

Ultimately, America's strategic gain comes at the expense of the stability and prosperity of its partners.

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