As the US‑Israeli military campaign against Iran enters its second month, speculations are rising over a potential American ground incursion, a volatile standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, and confusion over whether talks to end the war are actually taking place.

As Tehran issues firm warnings over regional escalation and rejects US terms, Mehdi Latifi, a Tehran-based journalist and analyst, warns that any ground attack would bring devastating casualties and spiral the crisis out of control. At the same time, he sees little chance of a deal under Washington's current demands.

A ground attack?

One month into the war, speculations persist over when and how long US ground forces could be deployed, amid US military build-up in the region, though Washington and Tehran have issued conflicting messages on the matter.

With over 50,000 US troops now in the Middle East, military analysts, according to The New York Times, say the number is too small for a full-scale land invasion, yet large enough to give the administration of US President Donald Trump new escalation options.

The Pentagon is preparing for "weeks" of ground operations in Iran, and its military plans could include raids by special operations and conventional infantry forces, with a possible mission to capture Kharg Island, Iran's key oil export hub near the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Washington Post.

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has accused the US of plotting a ground attack, adding that Iranian forces are "waiting for American soldiers to enter on the ground so they can rain fire upon them."

Latifi, editor-in-chief of Ana News Agency in Tehran, warned that the probability of a US ground attack on Iran from its southern and western borders has risen.

The US is likely attempting a limited ground operation to test the situation and gauge the scale of Iran's response, Latifi told CGTN.

Any such ground action would bring extremely heavy casualties and losses to both sides, and fundamentally shift the strategic equation, he said.

If that intervention expands, controlling the situation will become just as difficult as starting the war, he said.

The Hormuz ultimatum?

Trump has told aides he is prepared to end the military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, The Wall Street Journal reported late Monday, citing officials in the Trump administration.

According to the report, Trump and his advisers have determined that any operation to forcibly reopen the critical global energy chokepoint would drag the war out past his planned four-to-six-week timeframe.

If confirmed, this would mark the latest contradictory signal from Washington. Trump had previously issued an ultimatum to Iran by 10 days, demanding it fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz by April 6, threatening strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure if Tehran failed to comply.

On Monday, the National Security Committee of Iran's Parliament approved a bill that would impose fees on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while barring ships from the US and Israel from the waterway.

The Strait of Hormuz is at present operating with a limited number of vessels under Iranian oversight, Latifi said. However, any targeting of Iran's infrastructure or a ground invasion would severely destabilize the global energy situation, he said.

If Iran's infrastructure is targeted, all energy infrastructure across the region – in Persian Gulf countries that have allowed the United States to use their territory – will also be affected, he said. "Even Israel itself would not be immune to such consequences."

What about the talks?

Since the outbreak of the conflict, Iran and the US have issued contradictory statements regarding diplomatic negotiations, casting deep uncertainty over attempts to de-escalate the fighting.

At a press conference on Monday, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated that Iran has not engaged in any negotiations with the United States, adding that it remains unclear whether Washington is serious about diplomatic solutions.

In a social media post late Monday, Trump claimed the United States is "in serious discussions" with what he labeled a "new and more reasonable regime" to end military operations in Iran, asserting that "great progress" has been achieved.

Latifi said there is a consensus among Iranian officials on one point: the complete rejection of Trump's 15-point proposal.

Iran may have been willing, in the past and prior to the US and Israeli attacks, to offer certain concessions, but now even those are no longer on the table, he said.

Negotiations between Iran and the United States will likely continue, but the Iranian analyst considers it unlikely that any agreement will be reached under current US demands unless both sides show flexibility.