Change is afoot in EU-China relations?

Editor's note: Arvea Marieni, a special commentator for CGTN, is the German Climate Pact Ambassador of European Commission. She is a partner and board member of the management consultancy Brainscapital and shareholder of the French systems engineering company Beam Cube, where she co-leads the development of Ecological Transition Solutions. As a strategy consultant, climate policy expert and innovation manager, she specializes in EU-China environmental cooperation. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

A shift in pace is palpable in Beijing. I witnessed it firsthand when I spoke at the Zhongguancun Forum 2026 in Beijing – a national-level platform dedicated to technological innovation exchange, co-organized by Chinese government departments, including the Ministry of Science and Technology. This is not merely an innovation event: It is where the country's strategic direction is measured.

Against the backdrop of the war in Iran, the United States is increasingly perceived as a revisionist power, even in Southeast Asia. Singapore's Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan made this point explicitly in a recent interview with Reuters.

This scenario opens a valuable window for reshaping relations with Europe, and China appears cautiously ready to step through it. The first European Parliament delegation to Beijing in eight years confirms that global balances are shifting. The question is whether a strategic renegotiation along the EU-China axis is feasible today. It is possible, but policymakers must not ignore the unresolved issues and real risks.

What strikes me is the pace of China's acceleration. The gap in industrial innovation is clear: Large-scale operational artificial intelligence, autonomous vehicles, and humanoid robots are already integrated into production processes. Here, innovation has become an infrastructure of power.

In 2025, China's spending on research and development exceeded 3.9 trillion Chinese yuan ($566.6 billion) – an increase of 8.1% over the previous year – reaching 2.8% of GDP. Basic research surpassed 277 billion yuan ($40.2 billion), an 11.1% increase compared to 2024. The development of the space economy, advanced open-source AI, 76 newly approved drugs, and over $130 billion in innovative drug licensing deals all demonstrated that China is building a knowledge-based system for constructing the future. 

My contribution to the forum focused on virtual twins and digital DNA – practical tools to optimize infrastructure, territorial governance, and industrial systems in real time, reducing waste and emissions. It is precisely in this space that I saw ample room for concrete collaboration. I attended as a representative of a high-tech French small and medium-sized enterprise (SME), but the perspective must be European, leveraging federations of innovation champions across the EU.

Italy has a long-standing presence in China. At Zhongguancun, the Italian delegation included high-tech, knowledge-intensive companies, some supported by Cassa Depositi e Prestiti and coordinated by entities such as Spiri Srl in Naples and the International Technology Transfer Network, a spin-off of China's Ministry of Science and Technology, acting as a bridge between different technological ecosystems.

Market opportunities are significant, but they cannot be pursued in isolation: European countries must coordinate, building on regional and industrial specializations, avoiding internal competition, and optimizing investment.

EU-China synergies emerge where skills integrate in key sectors: virtual twins for energy and materials, industrial internet of things (IoT), eco-design, "clean" AI, and Earth observation. A concrete example is the parallel use of the Galileo (EU) and Gaofen (China) satellite systems, which could generate dual-source geospatial platforms for heavy industry, infrastructure, and territorial management. Data control is guaranteed, benefits shared: a pragmatic and verifiable model, though with manageable strategic risks.

Cooperation can be decisive in climate and disaster resilience. Integrating satellite data, IoT sensors, and AI-based predictive models already enables the anticipation of floods, fires, and droughts, enhancing response capacity and reducing impact. Virtual twins applied to cities and infrastructure allow planners to simulate risk scenarios, plan interventions in advance, and govern systems effectively.

In this context, market openness and reciprocity are central. Greater Chinese corporate presence in Europe – through productive investments and joint ventures in advanced technology sectors – will strengthen European industrial supply chains. Conversely, broader participation by European companies in public tenders and industrial programs in China provides a tangible rebalancing of economic relations. It is a concrete point on the negotiation table.

Without Chinese technology, Europe's green transition would be slowed. For this reason, the UK announced the removal of tariffs on key components for offshore wind production, effective April 1, 2026. The measure lowers costs for British manufacturers, saves the industry millions of pounds, and supports the UK's goal of becoming a "Clean Energy Superpower." It is a clear signal of how industrial and energy policies can align with European and global strategies.

Scientific and technological diplomacy plays a key role alongside climate diplomacy and represents today a strong track for dialogue with the EU. In my discussions, I sensed an awareness that we are at a historic juncture and are willing to listen to one another. It is fertile ground where technical dialogue becomes strategic.

Challenges remain, as do red lines and mutual distrust. Since 2026, the EU has excluded Chinese institutions from HORIZON funding in the most sensitive sectors – AI, semiconductors, quantum, biotech, 5G, and 6G.

Chinese perceptions of the EU are also changing: A fragmented Union is seen as unreliable and incapable of guaranteeing shared standards or regulatory predictability. In a global context marked by tariffs, technology controls, conflicts, and polycrises, supporting politicians who seek to fragment it makes little sense.

Transatlantic tensions are prompting Brussels to look east and west with strategic realism. Today, EU personnel are advised not to use personal devices in either the US or China. The trust deficit is systemic.

The choice, at this point, is ours: The era of caution is over. And passivity is not a strategy, as President Alexander Stubb of Finland reminded us in a recent speech. The EU will have to actively participate in shaping the new global balance – or simply adapt to decisions made elsewhere.

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com. Follow @thouse_opinions on X to discover the latest commentaries in the CGTN Opinion Section.)