Iran war to see 'most critical' phase amid US 48-hour ultimatum: analysis

US President Donald Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum on Saturday, demanding that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by his previously set deadline of April 6. The demand was immediately rejected by Iran's military command.

Analysts point to conflicting signals from the US administration and warn that the war may be entering "its most critical and dangerous phase" since the US and Israel launched their surprise attack on Iran on February 28.

Trump's latest threat, posted on the social media platform Truth Social on Saturday, the 36th day of the conflict, echoed his earlier 10-day deadline issued on March 26.

"Remember when I gave Iran ten days to MAKE A DEAL or OPEN UP THE HORMUZ STRAIT," Trump wrote. "Time is running out – 48 hours before all Hell will reign down on them."

Iran's central military command rejected the ultimatum, with top commander Ali Abdollahi saying Trump's threat was a "desperate, nervous, unbalanced and foolish action."

Any US or Israeli strike on Iran's infrastructure would be met with "devastating and continuous" attacks on all US military assets in West Asia and Israeli infrastructure, Abdollahi, chief commander of Iran's Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, warned, according to the semi-official Fars news agency.

He said the Iranian armed forces would not hesitate "for a moment" to defend the country's rights and protect national assets and "will put the aggressors in their place."

Echoing the US president's language, Abdollahi warned that "the gates of hell will open for you."

The renewed ultimatum comes as energy markets react to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The American Automobile Association said on Saturday that US gas prices hit a national average of $4.10 per gallon, up 12 cents from last week.

Gas prices in the US have surged approximately 37% since February 28, with analysts attributing the spike to supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz – a vital artery for 20% of global oil – as well as reduced production across the Middle East.

The 48-hour ultimatum also marks the latest in a series of contradictory messaging by the Trump administration.

On March 21, Trump first threatened to destroy Iran's power plants within 48 hours if the Strait of Hormuz was not opened. Two days later, he announced a 5-day delay, citing "very good and productive" talks with Iran, a claim immediately denied by Iran's Foreign Ministry, which stated that no such dialogue had taken place.

On March 26, Trump pushed the deadline back again by 10 days, claiming it was "at the request of the Iranian government," but the Wall Street Journal, citing undisclosed mediators, reported that Iran had never made such a request.

Citing an Iranian political analyst, Li Jiannan, China Media Group reporter in Tehran, noted that Trump's latest threat of continuous escalation of military hostilities apparently runs contrary to his claimed willingness to negotiate.

Li also cited the analysis as saying that Trump's push for such negotiations appears to be an attempt to use diplomatic pressure to extract the same concessions and objectives that the US has so far failed to achieve on the battlefield, rather that a genuine pursuit of peace.

The Associated Press reported on Saturday that mediators from Pakistan, Türkiye and Egypt were seeking to bring the US and Iran to the negotiating table, citing two unnamed regional officials.

With the 48-hour countdown set on Saturday, Trump was effectively signaling that his earlier ultimatum to Iran was about to expire, Zhou Dewu, a former deputy editor-in-chief of Ta Kung Pao, wrote on his WeChat account.

Zhou said, with US special operations forces now reportedly operating deep within Iranian territory to lead the rescue mission of a missing US military pilot, the probability of a direct engagement between American and Iranian troops was on the rise.

A US government official told Al Jazeera on Sunday local time that the missing crew member from the downed F-15 jet has been "recovered" from Iran following a "heavy firefight."

The official said the rescue operation was "ongoing" as teams attempt to safely "exfiltrate from Iran," Al Jazeera reported, without giving more details.

Iran's Tasnim news agency reported that the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps said a US search-and-rescue aircraft searching for the missing pilot had been shot down in Isfahan Province.

The pilot was part of a two-seat F-15 fighter jet that was shot down on Friday, the first confirmed downing of a US warplane inside Iranian territory since the start of US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

An analysis by the Daily Telegraph suggested a successful rescue of the missing pilot could embolden the Trump administration to press on with heavy air strikes against Iran and even consider sending in ground forces for a land operation.

Zhou noted Trump had threatened to strike Iran in next two to three weeks in his first primetime national address on April 1, when he said the US would unleash even more intense strikes on Iran, driving it back to "the Stone Ages."

All factors considered, Zhou argued, the Iran conflict is about to see "its most critical and dangerous moment yet."