Editor's note: Anthony Moretti, a special commentator for CGTN, is an associate professor at the Department of Communication and Organizational Leadership at Robert Morris University in the U.S. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily those of either CGTN or Robert Morris University.

On Tuesday evening (US time), Donald Trump appeared to back away from threats to wipe Iran off the face of the Earth while accepting a ceasefire. While it would be understandable if people reacted to that decision by releasing a deep exhale and offering thanks, the fact is no one can predict with certainty what the President of the United States might do next. 

Why? Because as each day passes in the war launched by the US and Israel against Iran, President Trump's social media posts become more reckless. Ignore his words for just a moment and instead focus on the grim reality: Will this ceasefire actually hold – and bring the war to an end?

The roughly six-week-old war has already had significant repercussions at home and around the world. Let's begin with the price of oil, which has sharply increased, rising from roughly $70 per barrel on February 28, the day the US-Israeli war on Iran began, to more than $112 per barrel a few days ago. For Americans, that has led to gas prices surging past $4 a gallon. The citizens of many other nations are facing the same pain at the pump. 

Next, President Trump has further shredded the fabric that keeps the Western alliance together. Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney has ruled out his country fighting alongside the US. One French ambassador, Nabil Hajlaoui, has called the conflict "unjustified and illegal." The UK continues to say that the US may use British military bases only for defensive actions. And Germany's Chancellor Friedrich Merz has said his nation will not take part in "a massive, open-ended escalation" of hostilities in the Middle East. There is only one conclusion to draw: Washington's closest European allies want no part of an unnecessary military confrontation. And yet the White House persists in believing the war is necessary. 

Related to this, the US president either refuses to accept or has no idea that multiple analysts are arguing that China appears ever more worthy of respect for its level-headed approach and pronouncements. The Chinese government continues to push for a ceasefire as a way to open the door for a longer lasting peace in the Middle East. In addition, China's stance has allowed for it to continue to export oil through the Strait of Hormuz, a move that ensures China's overall economic output will face reduce headwinds when compared to other nations. 

Fourth, the war has weakened America financially. Paying more for gas means US citizens will have less to spend on other items. Meanwhile, according to one estimate, the US is spending roughly $890 million per day on the conflict, adding further strain to a national deficit that has breached $39 trillion. Devoting large resources to the war also reduces the country's commitments to "peace" elsewhere. The financial toll for this war will eventually come due; sadly, future generations of Americans are the ones who will be forced to pay it. 

Nevertheless, the president's strategy is, and that presumes there is one, has been lost in the maelstrom of dangerous threats to Iran's health and safety. Attempting to answer the question "What is Trump doing?" seems futile because there is no logic in play at the moment. 

It was a little more than two decades ago when the US went to war in the Middle East. No rational person argued that President George W. Bush wanted to destroy Iraq's or Afghanistan's civilization. No rational person claimed that the president wanted to make either country uninhabitable for an untold number of years. 

Fast forward to 2026, and rational people are of the opinion that annihilation and destruction is exactly what the current US president is seeking in Iran. Squaring that with American "exceptionalism" is impossible. Likewise, squaring that with making America great again is impossible. 

In any case, peace talks are a welcome first step. What matters now is whether the United States will stay the course and find a way out of an unsustainable war.

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