US-Iran talks face hurdles as Israel-Lebanon dialogue emerges

Negotiations between Iran and the United States are set to begin in Islamabad on Saturday, aiming to find a peaceful pathway to ease tensions in the Middle East following the arrival of Iran's delegation on Friday.

The two sides agreed earlier this week to a Pakistan-mediated 14-day ceasefire. The Iranian delegation, led by Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi, consists of around 71 members, including technical specialists in economic, security and political fields, as well as media personnel and support staff, according to Tasnim News Agency.

Qalibaf said on X that Washington had previously agreed to unblock Iranian assets and to a ceasefire in Lebanon, adding that talks would not start until those pledges are fulfilled.

In Islamabad, Qalibaf said Tehran had goodwill towards negotiations but no trust in the United States, adding that Iran was ready to reach a deal if Washington offered what he described as a genuine agreement and granted Iran its rights, Iranian state media reported.

On the US side, Vice President JD Vance, who will lead the US delegation, said he expected a positive outcome as he headed to Pakistan, but added: "If they're going to try to play us, then they're going to find the negotiating team is not that receptive."

Shortly after the US delegation departed, President Donald Trump said the outcomes of negotiations with Iran will be clear "in about 24 hours" while threatening that US warships are being reloaded to resume strikes on Iran if peace talks in Pakistan fail, in an interview with the New York Post.

According to the New York Post, Washington is expected to press Tehran to hand over a significant stockpile of enriched uranium and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping. Trump added that the strait would reopen "automatically," with or without Iran's cooperation.

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif addressed the nation on Friday night, saying that "the permanent ceasefire is the next difficult phase, which is to resolve the complicated issues through negotiation. This, as called in English, is a make-or-break phase."

Separately, diplomatic engagement is also emerging between Israel and Lebanon. The Israeli ambassador to the US, Yechiel Leiter, and his Lebanese counterpart, Nada Hamadeh Moawad, will hold an initial meeting next Tuesday in Washington, Israeli and Lebanese officials said. However, the two sides have issued conflicting statements on what the talks will cover.

Lebanon's presidency said the two held a phone call on Friday and agreed to discuss announcing a ceasefire and setting a start date for bilateral talks. But Israel's embassy in Washington said the talks would constitute the start of "formal peace negotiations" and that Israel had refused to discuss a ceasefire with Hezbollah.

Despite ongoing divergences, Qin Tian, deputy director of the Middle East Studies Institute at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, underscored the importance of advancing Israel-Lebanon dialogue alongside US-Iran negotiations.

Qin noted that tensions between Israel and Hezbollah could disrupt the broader diplomatic track. If Israel intensifies military operations in Lebanon, Iran may respond against both Israel and the United States, potentially derailing the talks entirely.

Qin added that neither set of negotiations is widely viewed as promising, with US-Iran talks facing particularly steep challenges. These negotiations span a broad agenda, including the Strait of Hormuz, a permanent ceasefire, mechanisms for maintaining it and long-standing disputes such as nuclear and missile issues – areas that are especially difficult to resolve.

By contrast, while relations between Lebanon and Israel remain complex, their talks are more narrowly focused on two core issues: a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah and Hezbollah's disarmament. These, Qin suggested, may be comparatively more manageable, making at least a basic ceasefire achievable.

However, he cautioned that the durability of any agreement remains uncertain. Citing a ceasefire arrangement between Israel and Lebanon in November 2024, Qin noted that Israel subsequently carried out unilateral strikes against Hezbollah despite the agreement, raising questions about future compliance.

(With input from agencies)