Why global confidence is shifting away from the US

Editor's note: Cen Ziyuan is a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

A recent global Gallup poll captures a pivotal moment in world politics: For the first time in nearly two decades, China has pulled decisively ahead of the United States in global leadership approval, with a median of 36 percent compared to Washington's 31 percent in 2025. More than a statistical milestone, this widening gap signals a deeper shift already underway – one in which global audiences are rethinking what leadership looks like, whom it serves, and which model delivers in an increasingly uncertain world.

For decades, perceptions of global leadership were largely shaped by the dominance of the United States and its allies. China had led the US in leadership approval only twice before: during the George W. Bush administration and during the first Trump administration.

The disapproval of US leadership rose to a record high of 48 percent, while China's disapproval rating remained flat at 37 percent. This trend is not simply about geopolitics; it reflects how countries and populations evaluate leadership in a rapidly changing world.

At the core of this shift are three interrelated dynamics: a growing emphasis on development outcomes, the appeal of mutually beneficial cooperation, and a renewed prioritization of national sovereignty. They help explain why China's global standing is rising, while the United States faces mounting challenges to its credibility and influence.

Development as the foundation of legitimacy

One of the most striking implications of the Gallup data is the changing standard by which global leadership is judged. For much of the post-Cold War era, it was closely associated with promoting political values: democracy, human rights and institutional governance. While these remain important, they are no longer sufficient on their own.

Across much of the developing world, the primary concern is economic growth and improved living standards. Jobs, infrastructure, energy access and poverty reduction are immediate and tangible priorities. In this context, China's global image benefits from its association with rapid economic development and its ability to deliver large-scale projects abroad.

The Gallup findings show that China's approval ratings tend to be stronger in low- and middle-income countries, where development needs are most pressing. This suggests that many countries are evaluating leadership through a pragmatic lens: Who contributes most effectively to national development goals?

China's domestic transformation over the past four decades has become a powerful reference point. It offers an alternative model of modernization, one that does not necessarily follow Western political templates but delivers measurable economic results. For many nations, that carries significant weight.

The appeal of mutual benefit

Notably, the survey predates several major developments in early 2026, including the Trump administration's announcement of withdrawal from 66 international organizations in January and the outbreak of war with Iran in late February.

In recent years, US foreign policy has increasingly emphasized strategic competition, particularly in trade, technology and security. While this approach reinforces alliances among established partners, it can also create pressure on other countries to align with one side or the other.

China, by contrast, has framed its global engagement around the idea of "mutual benefit" or "win-win cooperation." This narrative emphasizes shared economic gains, infrastructure development and long-term partnerships rather than ideological alignment.

For many countries, especially those in Africa, Asia and Latin America, this approach is appealing. It allows countries on these continents to pursue economic opportunities without becoming entangled in great-power rivalries. The Gallup data reflects this reality, with relatively high approval of China's leadership in several regions of the Global South.

In a period marked by slowing growth and rising uncertainty, countries are increasingly focused on practical outcomes. Partnerships that deliver visible improvements such as new roads, ports, or investment tend to generate stronger public support than those framed primarily in strategic or ideological terms.

Sovereignty and non-interference

Over the past several decades, the United States has frequently used a combination of military intervention, sanctions and political pressure to influence outcomes in other countries. While often justified in terms of promoting stability or democratic values, these actions have also generated skepticism and, in some cases, resentment.

China, on the other hand, has consistently emphasized respect for national sovereignty and a policy of non-interference. This stance resonates strongly in regions with historical experiences of colonialism or external intervention. For many governments, the assurance that partnerships will not come with political conditions is a significant advantage.

The Gallup findings suggest that this approach contributes to China's favorable image in parts of the world where concerns about external influence are particularly acute. It offers an alternative model of engagement, one that prioritizes autonomy and stability over transformation.

Challenge to US credibility and accountability

China's rising approval cannot be understood without also considering the relative decline in perceptions of US leadership. The Gallup data shows approval of US leadership declined by 10 points or more in 44 countries between 2024 and 2025, while it increased by a similar number in only seven. The declines were concentrated among US allies, including many NATO partners.

Over the past decade, shifts in US policy, from trade agreements to climate commitments, have raised questions about its consistency and reliability. Domestic factors, such as political polarization, social tensions and governance challenges within the United States, have been widely visible internationally. These developments complicate the country's ability to present itself as a stable and effective model.

In addition, the expanded use of sanctions and other coercive measures have contributed to a perception of overreach. While such tools remain central to US foreign policy, they can alienate countries that prefer more cooperative forms of engagement.

These factors suggest that the United States is facing a form of "credibility gap," a mismatch between its traditional leadership role and current global perceptions.

A new phase in global governance

The trends reflected in the Gallup data point to a broader transformation in the international system. This is not simply a matter of one country rising while another declines.

The growing approval of China reflects the resonance of its development-oriented, cooperative and non-interventionist approach, particularly in the Global South. At the same time, the United States faces the challenge of adapting its leadership model to a world less willing to accept traditional hierarchies.

This does not mean that the global order has been fundamentally rewritten. Rather, it suggests that the system is entering a period of adjustment, a "new-old transition" in which competing visions of leadership coexist and interact.

In this evolving landscape, perception matters. Public opinion, as measured by institutions like Gallup, serves as an early indicator of bigger structural change. As countries continue to navigate uncertainty, the ability to deliver tangible benefits, build trust and respect diverse pathways will likely define the future of global leadership.

The question is no longer whether the world is changing, but how, and in whose image the next phase of global governance will be shaped.

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