15th FYP implementing ecological civilization as a global public good

Editor's note: Yasiru Ranaraja, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a researcher on maritime affairs and an expert on Belt and Road Initiative development. He is also the founding director of the Belt & Road Initiative Sri Lanka, an international development organization and think tank in Sri Lanka. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Five years after the 2021 Leaders' Summit on Climate, the concept of "a community of life for man and Nature" has begun to gain wider global recognition, even as the escalating frequency of climate-related disasters by 2026 pushes global climate governance toward a critical inflection point.

A decade on from the Paris Agreement, a shift from aspirational target-setting to an era of mandatory implementation and legal accountability, the regime now faces intensifying fragmentation and heightened legal scrutiny.

As leading economies show hesitancy in maintaining ambitious low-carbon policy trajectories, the effectiveness of the Paris framework increasingly depends on governments embedding climate policy within binding legal and regulatory systems. In this evolving landscape, China has emerged as a pivotal actor, balancing its position as one of the world's largest emitters with its expanding leadership in green technology manufacturing and South-South cooperation.

Central to this role is China's 15th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period (2026–2030), which represents a critical intermediary stage between China's pledge to peak carbon emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.

Structurally, the FYP marks a pivot to a comprehensive national framework that positions the green transition as a systemic pillar of development, elevating environmental sustainability to the same level as economic growth and technological innovation, and signaling a fundamental recalibration of China's development model.

The plan establishes the institutional, technological, and regulatory foundations for carbon governance through an integrated approach that simultaneously advances emissions reduction, pollution control, ecological expansion, and economic development, aligned with the mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable finance principles embedded in the Paris Agreement.

At the same time, the plan functions as a policy bridge translating international environmental commitments into China's domestic modernization agenda, marking a decisive shift in its regulatory architecture. Beginning in 2026, China is transitioning from the "dual control" system, focused on total energy consumption, toward a carbon-centered regulatory framework, alongside targets to reduce carbon intensity by 17% and increase the share of non-fossil fuels to approximately 25%. Taken together, these measures not only outline a pathway toward the 2060 carbon neutrality objective but also provide an increasingly formalized legal and institutional basis for its realization.

On the industry level, this process is supplemented by the rapid growth of the "new three" sectors, i.e., those specializing in electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and photovoltaic (PV) cells. In other words, it implies the creation of industries that would not only remain competitive but also play a crucial role in promoting the green recovery process, thereby translating the goals of the UN 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development into China's economic system.

In this respect, the notion of ecological civilization, enshrined in both the Constitution of China and numerous regulatory documents, becomes instrumental to implementing such a transformation, as it turns climate governance into a matter of ensuring sustainable modern development through legislative instruments.

Contrary to the historical tradition in which other nations treated climate change adaptation as an obstacle to economic growth, China provides an example of effective legal measures to promote the green transition and boost productivity.

This process also involves the development of market-based mechanisms aimed at ensuring deep decarbonization. Among them are China's national emissions trading system and a "new-type energy system" based on renewable energy sources and innovations in energy storage. This shows how a major developing country can ensure deep decarbonization, energy security, and stability at the same time.

However, such a transformation implies several regulatory challenges to be addressed. In particular, given the continued reliance on coal for energy security, it is vital to reconcile decarbonization with the stabilization of China's economy. Simultaneously, there are regional issues complicating the implementation of China's climate strategies, particularly in provinces struggling to eliminate carbon-intensive industries. Finally, there are technical issues related to the expansion of renewable energy generation, namely grid integration, energy storage, and coordination of markets, which will require innovative solutions from China.

In the context of increasingly fragmented international relations, the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities in the global climate change regime remains an essential component of climate diplomacy. As China characterizes its position within the framework of the Paris Agreement, one should mention the presence of policy continuity and planning contributing to stability amidst the ongoing changes in a multi-center system of climate governance. Contrary to the cases of countries where climate strategies undergo considerable changes every time there is a political turnover, China provides an example of institutional consistency concerning climate-related policies.

Meanwhile, further strengthening of environmental safeguards and regulations in China is likely to result in enhancing its Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), which are publicly available under the Paris Agreement. Consequently, NDCs, combined with the transparency mechanisms of the Paris framework, create a dual system of accountability that promotes the growth of contributions while exposing any insufficient action. In other words, while initially serving as a tool of transparency, the latter now serves as a normative instrument affecting major greenhouse gas producers.

The aspiration to create a "community of life" implies an integrative approach. Contrary to sector-based approaches, in which some industries are prioritized, the policy adopted by China emphasizes the importance of ecosystem management across mountains, rivers, forests, and deserts. This can be seen in the creation of large-scale renewable energy centers in places such as the Gobi Desert, as well as in the establishment of national parks as part of ecosystem restoration.

Another important aspect of China's contribution to climate diplomacy lies in its active international cooperation within the Global South.

Many developing nations face the "energy trilemma" (affordability, security and sustainability); these nations receive significant support from China in terms of investments and technologies. For instance, thanks to renewable energy projects launched in China, Vietnam, and Indonesia, these countries are abandoning carbon-intensive infrastructure while continuing to grow economically.

In the meantime, cooperation between Africa and China in the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative focuses more on developing renewable energy capacities. By moving from the mere infrastructural cooperation to soft connectivity (technology transfers and green finance), such a policy becomes possible.

According to estimates, between 2021 and 2025, China's exports of PV and wind technologies reduced global emissions by 4.1 billion tons, demonstrating China's system-wide industrial capability.

Therefore, the effectiveness of international agreements depends on their implementation at the national level, and the 15th FYP could serve as an example of successfully translating climate diplomacy into national legislation. By integrating carbon-reduction measures with processes such as rural revitalization, green finance, and sustainable consumption, China pursues an integrated approach to addressing climate challenges.

Clearly, China's approach may enhance the outcomes of climate diplomacy, as it shows that an efficient green recovery is possible not only through innovation but also by coordinating economic and environmental interests within an international regulatory framework.

So, the credibility of the international system of climate governance depends on how effectively governments implement their international commitments. By advancing the concept of ecological civilization as a global public good and using it as a framework for integrating climate policy into the country's development strategy, China contributes to improving climate governance. While doing so, it once again confirms the fact that the future of man and nature is common and can be affected by our decisions today.

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com. Follow @thouse_opinions on X, formerly Twitter, to discover the latest commentaries in the CGTN Opinion Section.)