World Bank forecasts 24% surge in energy prices in 2026

The World Bank predicted on Tuesday that energy prices may surge 24% in 2026 to their highest level since the Russia-Ukraine conflict erupted in 2022 due to the tensions in the Middle East, while overall commodity prices are projected to increase 16%.

In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook released on Tuesday, the World Bank said that attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 35% of global seaborne crude oil trade, have triggered the largest oil supply shock on record, with an initial reduction in global oil supply of about 10 million barrels per day.

Fertilizer prices are projected to increase by 31% in 2026, driven by a 60% jump in urea prices, while prices for base metals, including aluminum, copper and tin, are expected to reach all-time highs. Precious metals prices are forecast to increase 42% as geopolitical uncertainty fuels demand for safe-haven assets.

Commodity prices could rise even higher if hostilities escalate or supply disruptions from the war last longer than projected, the report said.

"The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves," said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group's chief economist and senior vice president for Development Economics, warning that poorer populations will be hardest hit.