Editor's note: Xiang Haoyu, a special commentator for CGTN, is a specially appointed research fellow at the Department for Asia-Pacific Studies, China Institute of International Studies. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

At the beginning of May, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi paid a three-day visit to Vietnam, during which she delivered a keynote speech outlining an "upgraded" version of the so-called Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) strategy. Cloaked in the rhetoric of "openness, diversity, and inclusiveness," this new vision purports to promote "prosperity" and "resilience," but in essence conceals an exclusionary, confrontational geopolitical logic that is little more than a 21st-century mutation of cold-war thinking.

Japan's ambition is unmistakable: to construct a values-based, Japan-centered "small circle" in the Asia-Pacific aimed at containing regional powers and reshaping the regional order.

Inheritance and mutation

Takaichi has long styled herself as the successor to former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, and this upgraded FOIP clearly pays homage to his legacy. A decade ago, Abe introduced the FOIP concept, whose core logic was to forge value-based alignments with the United States, Australia, India, and Southeast Asian countries to control key maritime corridors and counterbalance the rise of regional powers. Though packaged as a "public good," FOIP was in essence Japan's attempt to expand its diplomatic space and enhance regional influence through geopolitical maneuvering.

Takaichi's version is not a mere adjustment but a comprehensive escalation. While Abe's FOIP focused on traditional maritime security, the new iteration extends into artificial intelligence (AI), data governance, semiconductors, and critical mineral supply chains. Notably, the top priority identified in official documents is to "build economic infrastructure for the AI and data era." This underscores Japan's attempt, amid digital transformation and energy transition, to construct exclusive, rule-setting coalitions that effectively exclude certain regional powers from key value chains.

This "upgrade" signals that Japan is no longer content to remain a follower, but is instead seeking to seize the initiative by defining the rules of the game, turning FOIP into a strategic instrument for geopolitical containment.

Luring and penetration

It is no coincidence that Takaichi chose Vietnam as the debut stage for the updated FOIP. As a country of considerable geostrategic weight in Southeast Asia, Vietnam has long been a key target of Japan's regional diplomacy. Her visit, marked by a series of cooperation initiatives, reveals a distinctly utilitarian and calculated dimension of Japan's approach.

First, economic inducements as a tool for "interest binding." Japan has consistently sought to position Vietnam as an alternative to China-centered supply chains. This time, it is again leveraging large-scale investments in infrastructure, digital transformation, and green energy to draw Vietnam closer. Yet these initiatives are not purely win-win. By promoting Japanese-led technologies in areas such as 5G Open RAN, submarine cables, and AI education, Japan is effectively embedding "Japanese standards" into Vietnam's digital infrastructure, thereby shaping and constraining its future development trajectory.

Second, ideological outreach targeting younger generations. Takaichi's speech at Vietnam National University in Hanoi was clearly aimed at Vietnam's future elite. By promoting seemingly universal values such as "freedom," "democracy," and "openness," Japan seeks to instill its own normative framework, diluting the sense of a shared regional destiny rooted in historical and practical ties. This "values trap" constitutes one of the most subtle and potentially most destabilizing aspects of the FOIP agenda.

Third, security cooperation as a means of strategic alignment. Through its Official Security Assistance framework, Japan is effectively circumventing the constraints of its pacifist constitution to provide military equipment directly to regional partners. Plans to equip countries like Vietnam with maritime surveillance systems and enhance their Maritime Domain Awareness capabilities, under the banner of "freedom of navigation," risk exacerbating regional tensions and drawing them into a Japan-led security alignment.

A 'new cold war' vision

Stripped of its rhetorical veneer, Takaichi's upgraded FOIP reveals a troubling strategic orientation. Attempts to replicate a NATO-like framework in the Asia-Pacific run counter to the region's long-standing emphasis on inclusiveness, diversity, and cooperative development.

First, it embodies exclusionary "small circle" politics that undermine the centrality of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). While Japan professes support for ASEAN-led mechanisms, in practice, it increasingly sidelines ASEAN through minilateral groupings such as the Quad and other selective arrangements. The notion of "shared prosperity" it promotes is, in reality, predicated on excluding major powers. Genuine regional prosperity should be built on inclusive frameworks such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, not on ideologically driven supply chain blocs.

Second, actions taken in the name of "security" are in fact generating greater insecurity. Japan's gradual erosion of postwar constraints, coupled with expanded arms exports, risks fueling regional arms competition and heightening tensions. For Southeast Asian countries like Vietnam, true security lies in stable development and balanced major-power relations, not in serving as a forward outpost for external military agendas.

Third, such geopolitical maneuvering is both unpopular and ultimately self-defeating. Countries in the region seek equal partnership and tangible development opportunities – not to be reduced to pawns in strategic rivalry. By attempting to trade "values" for alignment, Japan underestimates the strategic autonomy and pragmatism of regional states. Persisting in a zero-sum, cold-war mindset risks pushing Japan toward strategic isolation.

Takaichi's announcement in Vietnam represents a bold but risky geopolitical gambit. Japan is wrapping outdated cold-war instincts in polished rhetoric – coating the "arsenic" of confrontation with the "honey" of economic incentives. Such an approach, despite its "free and open" branding, will not bring genuine peace or prosperity to the Asia-Pacific. Regional countries must remain vigilant and see through the narrative. Only by confronting its history and abandoning confrontational thinking can Japan find its rightful place in the region.

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