Middle East turmoil shakes global energy supply: ASEAN economy forges resilience through regional cooperation

Editor's note: Song Qingrun is a professor at the School of Asian Studies, Beijing Foreign Studies University. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The conflict in the Middle East is sending shockwaves through global energy supply chains and maritime trade routes. Coupled with volatile commodity prices and spreading inflationary pressures, economies worldwide are facing severe headwinds. As one of the most dynamic regions in the global economy, most ASEAN nations — heavily reliant on energy imports from the Middle East and integrated into the global trading system — are feeling the transmission effects acutely. Against this backdrop, the 48th ASEAN Summit and Related Meetings were held from May 7 to 8 in the Philippines, where leaders focused on core issues including energy supply, food security, and supply chain stability. The "ASEAN Leaders' Statement on the Response to the Middle East Crisis" was issued, alongside a series of coordinated regional measures to confront external risks and chart a path toward stable economic progress.

Triple systemic shocks — in energy, food, and macroeconomic stability — are exposing structural vulnerabilities across the region. On the energy front, most ASEAN countries are highly dependent on Middle East imports, with over half of the region's crude oil coming from Middle East. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have effectively choked ASEAN's primary energy supply route. Surging global oil prices have already led to fuel rationing and price spikes in several member states, making energy shortages an immediate bottleneck for industrial production and logistics.

The energy crisis has then been transmitted to the food sector, creating a linked "energy-food" inflationary spiral. Skyrocketing oil prices have dramatically raised the cost of fertilizers and agricultural inputs, as well as warehousing and transport. In major rice‑producing countries such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Myanmar, rising production costs are forcing farmers to reduce planted area, severely destabilizing regional food supply chains. Food security has thus escalated from a livelihood issue to a strategic regional priority.

Amid these multiple shocks, ASEAN's overall growth momentum has weakened. A recent report from Maybank Investment Bank downgraded its 2026 growth forecast for six core ASEAN economies — Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Vietnam, and Thailand — from 4.8 percent to 4.5 percent, highlighting the tangible drag of external geopolitical risks. Rising energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and high inflation are compressing corporate profits, dampening investment, raising living costs, and putting immense pressure on micro, small, and medium‑sized enterprises, thereby challenging regional macroeconomic stability.

In response to this unprecedented external uncertainty, the ASEAN summit sent a clear signal of collective action, proactive adaptation, and resilience‑building through an institutionalized and systematic approach. The "ASEAN Leaders' Statement on the Response to the Middle East Crisis" establishes a comprehensive risk response framework covering energy, food, finance, trade, and people's welfare.

On energy security, ASEAN leaders urged the expeditious completion of national processes towards ratification of the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security (APSA) to ensure its earliest possible entry into force and take steps to operationalize the APSA, which will enable information sharing, emergency stockpiling, and coordinated response mechanisms to mitigate the risk of supply disruptions. At the same time, the region is speeding up energy diversification and transition — broadening sources of crude and refined oil, and accelerating renewable energy deployment, cross‑border electricity trade, the ASEAN Power Grid, and the Trans‑ASEAN Gas Pipeline. These infrastructure upgrades aim to hedge against external supply risks and strengthen regional energy resilience.

On food security, ASEAN is upgrading its emergency response system to make food security a regional strategic priority. The summit called for strengthening the monitoring capacity of the ASEAN Food Security Information System and for exploring the utilization of all ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve mechanisms. Cooperation is to be extended from rice reserves to include fertilizers and agricultural inputs, addressing weak links in the agricultural supply chain. Through regular information sharing, cross‑sector coordination, and pooled emergency resources, ASEAN aims to solidly secure the food safety net and break the food inflation spiral triggered by higher energy prices.

On supply chains and financial stability, ASEAN reaffirmed its commitment to open regionalism and adherence to international law, and called for freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and other international sea lanes, to ensure the free flow of essential goods such as energy, food, and medicines. The region is deepening economic integration by moving to ratify the Second Protocol to Amend the ASEAN Trade in Goods Agreement, while fully implementing the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership and aiming to sign the ASEAN Digital Economy Framework Agreement within the year. Efforts to remove non‑tariff barriers, digitize customs procedures, and strengthen trade connectivity will help stabilize regional industrial and supply chains. On the financial front, ASEAN is strengthening multilateral cooperation and liquidity management, with increased support for micro, small, and medium‑sized enterprises to cushion external shocks through a resilient financial environment.

The Middle East turmoil is reshaping the global economic landscape, but the crisis also brings opportunities for transformation. The outcomes of this ASEAN Summit fully demonstrate the bloc's central role and the collective resilience of the community. Rather than each country responding passively on its own, ASEAN is mobilizing as a whole — leveraging institutional innovation, resource pooling, and industrial upgrading —to not only mitigate the short‑term impact of the Middle East turmoil but also address deep‑seated structural issues such as energy dependence, narrow economic bases, and weak risk‑bearing capacity.

Looking ahead, geopolitical tensions, energy volatility, and supply chain restructuring are likely to become the new normal. ASEAN's ability to maintain economic stability will rely on sustained regional coordination and open cooperation. With mature multilateral mechanisms, continuously improving risk management systems, and steady progress in industrial transformation, ASEAN is well-positioned to strengthen its resilience, balance risks with development amid global changes, and provide a much‑needed source of stability and certainty for economic recovery in the Asia‑Pacific and beyond.