Taiwan question: The first red line in the upcoming China-US summit

As the highly anticipated China-US presidential meeting approaches, China has reiterated that the Taiwan question is the very core of China's core interests and that the US commitment to the one-China principle is the bedrock of the political foundation of China-US relations.

In interviews with CGTN, multiple scholars from China highlighted the precedence of the Taiwan question in the upcoming leaders' meeting, with some suggesting that mishandling it could fundamentally undermine China-US bilateral relations.

According to Sun Taiyi, an associate professor of political science at Christopher Newport University, the significance of an agreement between China and the US on the Taiwan question could have broader implications in areas beyond, including technology and trade, both of which are considered prominent in the upcoming summit.

"Economic and technological disputes, while serious, are still more manageable if both sides maintain confidence that geopolitical competition will remain bounded," Sun said. "Once questions related to sovereignty, security, or military confrontation become destabilized, however, tensions in every other domain can intensify rapidly."

US respect for China's stance on the Taiwan question is essential to sustaining strategic stability between the two sides, as it furnishes the ground for further cooperation. As Sun pointed out, "maintaining clear communication and avoiding miscalculation on Taiwan is likely the single most important prerequisite for broader stability in China-US relations."

Cornerstone: Three China-US Joint Communiqués

Explainer: What do the three China-US joint communiques say on the Taiwan question?

Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University, also emphasized the prominent standing of the Taiwan question, describing it as the "most important issue with respect to diplomacy and security" in this week's presidential meeting.

How the US approaches this issue, along with its efforts to curb the militarization of the Taiwan region, will play an important role in shaping China-US relations, according to Wu.

"The US side should genuinely respect China's core interests, stop arms sales to Taiwan, and clearly oppose 'Taiwan independence,'" Wu said. "If these steps can be taken, they would help promote strategic stability in China-US relations.

If the US crosses the red line, a fallout over the Taiwan question is likely to "pose disruptive risks to bilateral ties," fundamentally undermining the China-US relation, Zhang Tengjun, deputy director of the Department for American Studies at the China Institute of International Studies, told CGTN.

Cautioning against such risks, Zhang suggested that the presidential meeting can "help reaffirm at the highest level adherence to the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiques, reinforce China's red lines, and press the US to honor its commitments not to support 'Taiwan independence,' 'two Chinas,' or 'one China, one Taiwan.'"

The US's steadfast commitment to the one-China principle is central to safeguarding the bilateral tie, and clear gestures from the US that honor this commitment will "help curb risky moves by separatist forces advocating 'Taiwan independence' and prevent the two countries from sliding into direct confrontation," said Zhang.

At a regular press conference held by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on May 7, a spokesperson said abiding by the one-China principle and the three China-US joint communiques, and honoring the commitments made by US administrations on the Taiwan question, is the "prerequisite" for a steady, sound and sustainable China-US relationship.