Editor's note: Saxon Zvina is principal consultant at Skyworld Consultancy Services based in Harare, Zimbabwe. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Alarm bells are ringing over Japan's nuclear and military ambitions, yet much of the world remains dangerously distracted. As highlighted in a CGTN opinion piece citing China's Foreign Ministry working paper, Japan is actively eroding the post-war norms that have restrained its military potential for nearly 80 years. This is not merely an East Asian security issue; it undermines the entire post-war international order and poses disproportionate risks to Africa and the Global South.

The most urgent threat is the collapse of the global non-proliferation system. The Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) relies on the consensus that nuclear powers pursue disarmament and non-nuclear states forgo nuclear weapons. As a technologically advanced non-nuclear party to the NPT, Japan has long symbolized that major industrial powers can prosper without nuclear weapons. However, official discussions, expert panel debates, and proposals to revise the Three Non-Nuclear Principles and advocate nuclear sharing are eroding the nuclear taboo.

If Japan moves closer to a nuclear weapons option, the NPT loses all credibility. Threshold states including South Korea, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Brazil will conclude that the cost of restraint is too high, triggering a new global wave of proliferation.

Japan's expanding military posture further fuels a dangerous arms race in the Pacific. Its defense budget is set to exceed 9.04 trillion yen (about $58 billion) for fiscal 2026, and its relaxation of weapons export rules marks a historic break from its post-war pacifist identity. This catalyzes escalating regional tensions. The Pacific risks becoming a zone of strategic confrontation rather than a zone of peace.

Japan's shift also undermines the post-war settlement established in 1945 to prevent global conflict. Article 9 of its constitution was central to its reintegration into the international community. By weakening these legal and political constraints, Tokyo suggests that the lessons of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the history of colonial expansion in Asia have been discarded. For countries that suffered under Japanese occupation, the lack of sincere remorse revives historical grievances and deepens regional insecurity.

For Africa and the Global South, Japan's nuclear ambitions represent a severe form of nuclear injustice. The existing non-proliferation regime has long been accused of double standards, allowing some states to maintain nuclear arsenals while denying technology to others. If Japan is permitted to approach the nuclear threshold, it becomes morally impossible to deny similar pathways to large Global South economies. The legitimacy of the entire system would collapse.

A Pacific arms race would redirect funding and attention from global challenges that threaten the Global South: climate change, debt distress, food insecurity and weak healthcare systems. Japan's rising military spending is likely to reduce development assistance to Africa, diverting resources from infrastructure, health and education.

In addition, nuclearization could revive the specter of testing or contamination in the Pacific, where communities still suffer from colonial-era nuclear experiments. Africa, which endured nuclear testing in the Sahara and uranium-related contamination, shares a deep, visceral solidarity with Pacific Island countries.

Most dangerously, Japan's normalization would embolden regional powers to pursue nuclear programs. African states, including South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria, have largely upheld non-proliferation commitments. A nuclear-leaning Japan would strengthen voices within these countries that argue restraint is self-defeating.

Africa and the Global South cannot remain silent. First, it's necessary for them to condemn Japan's nuclear drift through the UN General Assembly, the African Union and NPT review conferences. Second, they should build a formal Africa-Pacific cooperation mechanism to demand that Japan honor the Three Non-Nuclear Principles and accept strengthened international inspections.

Also, African nations can use economic leverage within the Tokyo International Conference on African Development partnerships to condition cooperation on genuine non-proliferation pledges. Moreover, they must strengthen the Pelindaba Treaty to enforce Africa's nuclear-weapon-free zone and enhance continental monitoring.

Furthermore, African civil society should support Japanese peace movements to isolate militaristic factions. Finally, the Global South should advance a positive alternative: a new compact linking non-proliferation to guaranteed access to peaceful nuclear energy, development investment and multilateral security assurances.

Japan's nuclear ambitions threaten a cascade of proliferation that would leave the weak and marginalized more vulnerable than ever. Africa chose a nuclear-weapon-free zone through the Pelindaba Treaty, choosing collective security over mutually assured destruction. That choice must now be defended with courage and unity.

The lessons of Hiroshima belong to all humanity. All nations, especially those of the Global South, must insist that these lessons are not forgotten. But no country has the right to reopen the nuclear door.

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