China's low‑altitude economy: 1.5 trillion to 3.5 trillion yuan – feasible or fantasy?

Five years ago, "low-altitude economy" was a niche term buried in a transport planning document. Today, it is a national strategic priority for China, with a dedicated chapter in the Civil Aviation Law, a dedicated department within the top economic planner, and a market that the government says could quadruple by 2030. The speed of China's buildout has drawn both excitement and skepticism – and the real test is only now beginning.

The term covers everything from delivery drones to electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft operating below 1,000 meters. The question is no longer whether the policy framework exists, but whether it can support a self-sustaining commercial ecosystem.

A regulatory sprint

In 2021, "low-altitude economy" appeared in a national transport blueprint for the first time. By 2024, it was in the government work report. Now, as of 2026, it has been upgraded to an "emerging pillar industry." And a revised aviation law, effective July 1, creates a dedicated chapter governing flights below 300 meters.

A 2023 decree defined "approved airspace" for unmanned aircraft, exempting small drones from flight applications below certain altitudes. In May 2026, a nationwide airspace update took effect – the largest since the framework began. Shenzhen, the country's drone manufacturing hub, now has 75% of its sub-120-meter airspace open for use.

Six cities are running eVTOL trials. In March 2025, two companies received China's first commercial operating certificates for crewed unmanned aircraft, marking what officials called the start of a "passenger-carrying era."

The numbers – and the gaps

In 2023, China's low-altitude economy was worth around 506 billion yuan (roughly $70 billion), according to CCID Consulting, a state-linked research firm. The Civil Aviation Administration of China projects it could grow from 1.5 trillion yuan in 2025 to 3.5 trillion yuan by 2035. Registered drones nearly tripled from 1.27 million in 2023 to 3.29 million by the end of 2025, with flight hours jumping 70% year on year to over 45 million.

But bottlenecks remain. Less than 30% of low-altitude airspace is available for general aviation, and it is fragmented rather than networked. China has only 449 general aviation airports. EVTOL batteries need at least 400 watt-hours per kilogram, but current ones top out around 285 Wh/kg. Key components still rely on imports.

From demo flights to daily operations

The industry is now trying to move from "can it fly?" to "does it make money?" At the 10th Drone World Congress in Shenzhen, the tone shifted toward commercial viability. Local services giant Meituan announced its drone delivery network would open to outside partners. SF Express's logistics drone arm said one of its cross-city routes had reached break-even.

Two mandatory national standards took effect on May 1, requiring drones to broadcast real-time identity data and to be registered before activation. With 3.29 million drones registered and flight hours surging, the regulatory infrastructure is catching up with the hardware. The pieces – policy, technology, capital and regulation – are falling into place. Whether they lock together fast enough to hit the 2030 target is the billion-dollar question.