2026 Shangri-La Dialogue: Envisioning Asia's security amid global turbulence

Editor's note: Yuan Sha, a special commentator for CGTN, is the deputy director of Global Governance and International Organization Studies, China Institute of International Studies. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The three-day 2026 Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore coincides with unprecedented and interwoven security challenges as Asia stands at a crucial crossroads in envisioning and shaping the future of regional security. One path leads to the trap of bloc confrontation, while the other draws on the long-standing Asian wisdom of inclusiveness, which enabled the region to jointly meet pressing security challenges and sustain the hard-won peace and prosperity it has enjoyed for decades.

Asia in the era of global turbulence

The conflicts in Europe and the Middle East have inflicted severe shocks across Asia, pushing Asian countries into heightened uncertainty.

The Ukraine crisis, now in its fourth year, has turned into a grinding war of attrition with no clear end in sight. It has far-reaching spillover effects beyond Europe, upsetting the regional balance of power and forcing many Asian countries to pick sides in great power competition.

The US–Israeli war against Iran has further destabilized the global security landscape, and the subsequent blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which carries around one-third of global seaborne oil trade, has triggered a massive global energy crisis that has hit Asian countries particularly hard.

In the Western Hemisphere, US military operations in Venezuela, repeated provocations against Cuba, and threats to take over Greenland and the Panama Canal undermine the international order rooted in the core principle of state sovereignty.

The accelerated advancement of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and their rapid militarization compound these challenges with the risk of igniting new arms races, posing new security challenges.

Heightening risks of regional confrontation

Amid global turmoil and shift in global order, Asia is witnessing three disconcerting trends in regional security.

The first is the re-emergence of geopolitical conflicts among neighboring countries. Cross-border clashes broke out between Thailand and Cambodia, and between Pakistan and Afghanistan. India and Pakistan also engaged in air battles last year.

There have also been misleading comparisons between strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Taiwan Strait, purposefully made to justify the increasing military presence and joint operations of Western powers and their Asian allies in these sensitive areas. The Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2026, released ahead of the Dialogue by its host, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, cautioned us against this.

The second trend is the resurgence of Japan's right-wing militarist ideology. Japan has accelerated its military buildup, plans to revise its three national security documents and the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology governing the export of military hardware and technology, and upgrade its national intelligence apparatus, effectively abandoning its post-World War II "exclusively defense-oriented policy."

This neo-militarism sounds an alarm for all Asian countries that suffered from Japanese aggression during WWII, and poses a pressing challenge to the post-WWII international order.

Last but not least, the region is at risk of bloc confrontation. Despite US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth's argument at the Dialogue that Washington seeks a "stable equilibrium" and not "needless confrontation," the US is pressuring its allies and partners in the region to increase their defense spending, purchase American weapons, and form exclusive blocs, effectively promoting the NATOization of the Asia Pacific.

The QUAD countries, the US, Japan, Australia and India, recently announced a new Indo-Pacific maritime surveillance initiative, which is the latest example of division and provocation in Asia.

A more inclusive security future

In an era of growing global instability, Asian countries need to draw the right lessens from the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe: Security is indivisible, and the region needs to value true multilateralism as opposed to bloc confrontation.

This outlook is articulated in the Global Security Initiative (GSI) proposed by China, which advocates common, comprehensive, cooperative, and sustainable security. Speaking at the Dialogue, Major General Meng Xiangqing, professor at China's National Defense University, stressed the importance of practicing the GSI in the region. Cui Tiankai, former Chinese Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, also pointed out that a "free and open" Asia Pacific needs to be "free and open for all instead of for just a few."

The Chinese delegates called on all countries to resolve differences through dialogue, address shared security challenges and build an inclusive regional security architecture that benefits all.

In line with the spirit of the GSI, there has been a positive momentum on regional security relations. The recent China-US summit in Beijing affirmed the bilateral framework of "constructive strategic stability," which would benefit the people of both countries and across the region. There has also been notable progress in the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs, as well as negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea between China and ASEAN.

These pragmatic dialogues and cooperation represent valuable efforts by the countries in the region to build trust, which is necessary for enhancing understanding, managing competition, and shaping a more robust regional security architecture of lasting peace and shared prosperity.

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