Large parts of northern and central India have been gripped by an intense heatwave in recent weeks, with temperatures approaching 48 degrees Celsius in some areas and prompting widespread heat alerts across the country.

According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), Banda district in Uttar Pradesh recorded a maximum temperature of 48.2 degrees Celsius, among the highest reported nationwide during the current heatwave. Temperatures in the capital, New Delhi, also climbed to around 45 degrees Celsius.

Multiple factors driving extreme temperatures

According to reports in The Economic Times and The Times of India, scientists say the ongoing heatwave is being driven by a combination of natural weather patterns and long-term climate change.

One major factor is the increasing likelihood of an El Nino event, which is often associated with hotter and drier conditions across South Asia. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimates a high probability of El Nino conditions developing during the coming months. However, experts note that El Nino alone does not explain the current heatwave.

Meteorologists point to weakened western disturbances – weather systems that normally bring clouds, rainfall and cooler air to northern India. Reduced activity this year has left skies unusually clear and dry, allowing solar radiation to continuously heat the land surface. Lower-than-average pre-monsoon rainfall and stagnant atmospheric circulation have further contributed to heat accumulation across the region.

Human activities are also intensifying the impact. In rapidly expanding cities, the urban heat island effect can significantly raise local temperatures as concrete and steel structures absorb and retain heat. Meanwhile, long-term global warming is steadily increasing baseline temperatures, making extreme heat events more frequent and severe.

Agriculture and industry under growing pressure

The prolonged heatwave is already putting pressure on daily life in India.

In agriculture, soaring temperatures are accelerating soil moisture loss and increasing irrigation demand. Experts warn that if the heat persists before the monsoon arrives, wheat yields could be affected by premature crop maturation, and pest and disease risks may also rise.

Industrial production has also been disrupted. Reports indicate that manufacturers in northern India have experienced lower productivity as workers struggle to operate safely during peak daytime temperatures. Some businesses have adjusted production schedules, shifting more work to early morning or nighttime hours to avoid extreme heat.

At the same time, electricity demand has surged as households and businesses rely heavily on cooling systems. India's peak power consumption has repeatedly reached record highs in recent days, increasing pressure on the country's energy infrastructure and raising concerns over potential supply shortages.

A warning sign for the world

The situation in India reflects a broader global trend. In a recent report, the WMO and the UK Met Office warned that global temperatures are likely to remain near record levels over the next five years, potentially breaching previous highs.