Eastward energy shift at St. Petersburg Forum

Editor's note: Nikola Mikovic, a special commentator for CGTN, is a freelance journalist in Serbia, covering mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policy issues. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Energy has traditionally been one of the major drivers of Russian foreign policy. Amid the ongoing Ukraine crisis, as well as the fragile situation in the Middle East resulting from attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran, energy – especially supply chain disruptions – is expected to be a major topic at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum (SPEF), scheduled for June 3-6.

The selection of oil-rich Saudi Arabia as the guest country at this year's event in Russia's Northern Capital is unlikely a pure coincidence. It underscores the importance Russian policymakers attach to the energy situation, both at home and around the world. Last month, energy officials from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman agreed, within the OPEC+ framework, to adjust oil production levels and reaffirmed their commitment to maintaining market stability amid growing uncertainty following the US attack on Iran. But despite their efforts, the situation remains highly unpredictable, particularly given that the United States and Israel could resume attacks on the Islamic Republic at any time.

While seeking to find a solution to the global energy crisis with Saudi Arabia, Russia also aims to strengthen energy ties with Riyadh's major regional rival – Iran. According to news reports, Russian and Iranian delegations are expected to hold talks during the SPEF. Given that the Islamic Republic's authorities have repeatedly expressed their interest in expanding imports of gasoline, diesel fuel, and products of the metallurgical and petrochemical industries from Russia, it is almost certain that energy will be one of the major topics they will discuss.

Nations around the globe eye to increase energy imports from the Russian Federation. During the active phase of the US-Iran war, the Philippines – Washington's crucial ally in Southeast Asia – began importing Russian crude for the first time in five years. Also, according to Sri Lanka's Energy Minister Anura Karunathilake, the island nation in South Asia is negotiating to purchase crude and refined fuels from Russia and China.

The European Union, on the other hand, remains determined to continue with its policy of "energy decoupling" from Russia, even though European business seems interested in renewing ties with Moscow. Despite sanctions their country imposed on Russia, German business delegation is expected to attend this year's event in St. Petersburg, hoping to explore new opportunities and strengthen commercial contacts.

For Russia, however, while resuming business as usual with Europe is undoubtedly an ambition, expanding ties with the Global South seem to be a priority at this point. Between 1997, when the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum was launched, and the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022, most major guests at the event were from Western countries. Now that Russia's economic and energy focus is shifting eastward, it is the Global South and China that play a crucial role in driving the country's economic pivot.

During Russian President Vladimir Putin's most recent trip to China, where he met with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, the two countries' delegations signed over 40 bilateral agreements, suggesting that Moscow now sees Beijing as its major partner. Thus, when the Chinese delegation confirmed its participation in the SPEF, it further underscored the growing importance of Sino-Russian cooperation in energy, trade, and investment.

Between 2022 and 2025, Russian-Chinese bilateral trade increased significantly, rising from $190 billion to $228 billion, and peaking at $237 billion in 2024. That year, the main focus of the forum was on relations between Moscow and Beijing. Although Saudi Arabia will take a central role in the 2026 edition, it is almost certain that this year's forum will help Russia and China strengthen their ties in various fields. At the same time, the event in St. Petersburg is expected to once again serve as a vital channel for deepening economic and trade ties across the Global South.

That, however, does not mean that Russia will give up on its ambitions to restore relations with the United States. Rodney Mims Cook Jr., the head of the US Commission of Fine Arts, will be the first American official to attend the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum since the escalation of the Ukraine crisis in 2022, while a business dialogue between companies from the United States and Russia is also planned as part of the forum.

The Kremlin, therefore, while seeking to expand ties with China and the Global South, is simultaneously trying to maintain a degree of engagement with the West.

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