The Strait of Hormuz closure: How it happened and what it led to?

Global ratings agency Fitch has raised its average Brent crude forecast for 2026 from $70 to $87 a barrel, citing sustained disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil trade. The revision comes as uncertainty persists over the aftermath of joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February.

The Strait of Hormuz, a 100-mile-long maritime chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and narrowing to 24 miles at its tightest point, carries a significant share of global energy flows. According to the International Energy Agency, as much as 25% of global seaborne oil trade transited the waterway in 2025.

Maritime traffic through the strait has fallen sharply following large-scale military actions by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28 and subsequent retaliatory strikes by Tehran.

Traffic through the strait remains a fraction of pre-war levels. An average of just three tankers a day has crossed in and out of Hormuz since the conflict began, according to shipping monitors including LSEG and Kpler. It's a stark contrast to an average of 129 daily ship transits through the strait from February 1 to 27, according to data provided by Clarksons Research Shipping Intelligence Network.

Behind the sharp decline is Iran's tightened control over the waterway since the conflict broke out, restricting passage for vessels it considers linked to hostile parties and imposing transit fees on shipping. On April 23, Iranian deputy parliament speaker Hamidreza Haji-Babaei said Tehran had received its first revenue from such tolls, according to Tasnim News Agency.

The United States has also stepped up naval operations targeting vessels linked to Iran after peace negotiations reportedly collapsed in mid-April. As of June 4, US Central Command said US forces had redirected 127 commercial vessels, disabled six non-compliant ships and allowed 36 vessels carrying humanitarian aid to pass.

In recent weeks, sporadic exchanges of fire between US and Iranian forces in and around the strait have continued, even as both sides seek to secure more favorable terms in ongoing discussions.

Washington has called for the full restoration of unrestricted commercial shipping through the waterway, while Tehran continues to view its control over the strait as a key bargaining chip in negotiations.

Talks to extend the ceasefire have so far stalled, and a broader reopening of the strait remains uncertain.

On Sunday, China Media Group reporter Wang Yin visited the Strait of Hormuz and observed that the waters were calm and tranquil on the surface. However, the outer anchorage off Oman's Port of Khasab was crowded with more than a hundred vessels, most of them cargo ships.

In recent days, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported that dozens of ships had transited the strait. Wang noted that although some vessels have resumed passage, overall shipping activity remains well below pre-conflict levels, with hundreds of commercial ships and around 20,000 seafarers still stranded in the Persian Gulf.

While ships continue to wait for the reopening of the strait, a lasting peace deal is unlikely in the near future if Iran insists on receiving sanctions relief in exchange for restoring free passage.

Fitch has estimated that a reopening of the strait is unlikely before July. Christopher Smart, a former trade adviser and Treasury official in the Obama administration, wrote in a New York Times op-ed on Thursday: "While it's hard to imagine a world in which the Strait never reopens, it's also hard to imagine the world economy ever again depending on the region for 20% of its oil and gas needs."

"Desperate buyers always manage to find new sellers when the old ones can't deliver. The longer the world goes without the Gulf's supplies, the easier it becomes," he said.

(With input from agencies)