It has been 100 days since the conflict between US, Israel and Iran erupted, and the situation is not getting any better.

For the Gulf states – which have long relied on a stable environment and energy wealth for economic development – these 100 days have not only been a security crisis, but also a major test prompting them to rethink their development models and strategic positioning, as well as accelerate their strategic shifts.

They now face two new challenges: maintaining stability and prosperity in a more volatile and multipolar world, and building a more resilient, self-reliant development path amid rising security risks, accelerated energy transition and a reshaped international landscape. 

100 days of conflict: Gulf states reassess development paths

Since the outbreak of this round of conflict, missiles and drones have targeted almost all types of civilian infrastructure in the Gulf Arab states, in some cases severely damaging energy facilities.

The security situation in the Strait of Hormuz – a crucial route for oil and gas exports – remains tense.

For a long time, the development model of the Gulf states has been based on two fundamental premises: a relatively stable regional environment and unimpeded international trade and energy transportation networks.

Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, rising international shipping costs and increased volatility in the energy market have all directly impacted the economic operations of the Gulf states.

Divergent paths: Gulf states explore different development models

Faced with the same security challenges, the Gulf states have not opted for a unified strategic choice, but rather have demonstrated distinctly different response paths based on their respective development needs, geopolitical environments and national positioning.

On May 1, the United Arab Emirates officially withdrew from OPEC and the OPEC+ mechanism, ending its nearly 60-year membership. 

This decision not only attracted widespread attention in the international energy market but was also seen as a significant signal of strategic adjustment in the Gulf region.

In contrast, Saudi Arabia continues to view OPEC and OPEC+ mechanisms as important tools for maintaining stability in the international energy market, focusing its main efforts on advancing its "Vision 2030" and economic structural reforms.

Oman continues to play its long-standing role as a mediator. With a relatively balanced foreign policy and lower geopolitical sensitivity, it has maintained relative stability during this crisis and has become one of the important channels for indirect communication between the US and Iran.

Qatar, which shares the world's largest single natural gas field with Iran—known as the South Pars field on the Iranian side and the North Field on the Qatari side— recognized the importance of security immediately after its gas facilities were attacked, and worked with Oman to push forward US-Iran negotiations.

These differences indicate that this round of conflict has not changed the Gulf states' shared goal of pursuing stability and development, but it is accelerating the divergence of their strategic paths.

Accelerated transformation: Gulf states speed up economic transitions

For decades, oil wealth and the Strait of Hormuz have been the two pillars of the Gulf economy. 

However, with the ongoing global energy transition and changes in the regional security environment, Gulf states are simultaneously pursuing two important transformations: reducing dependence on oil revenues and reducing reliance on the single passage of the Strait of Hormuz.

The UAE continues to improve its energy infrastructure in Fujairah on its east coast, enhancing its energy export capabilities by bypassing the Strait of Hormuz; Simultaneously, it is vigorously developing artificial intelligence, the digital economy, and high-end manufacturing.

Saudi Arabia is advancing economic structural reforms through its "Vision 2030," hoping to reduce the share of oil revenue in its national economy and develop new growth drivers such as new energy, tourism, and advanced manufacturing.

Qatar, on the other hand, is leveraging the increased demand for natural gas during its energy transition to solidify its position as a global energy supplier.

Meanwhile, Gulf countries are beginning to regard technological innovation, green transformation, and industrial upgrading as important sources of national competitiveness.

From withdrawing from OPEC to expanding natural gas production capacity, from building new energy projects to promoting the development of the digital economy, these seemingly scattered measures by Gulf countries actually all point to the same goal: enhancing the resilience and autonomy of national development. 

(Cover via VCG)