WMO warns of looming El Niño as extreme weather risks rise worldwide

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned on June 2 that an El Niño event is developing, raising the risk of extreme weather around the world.

According to the WMO, experts estimate an 80% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between June and August 2026. Meteorological agencies in several countries have also forecast that the event could reach strong or even very strong intensity.

El Niño is one of the most influential natural climate phenomena on Earth. It is characterized by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which alter atmospheric circulation patterns and affect weather and climate across the globe.

Often described as the planet's largest heat reservoir, the Pacific Ocean covers nearly one-third of Earth's surface. During an El Niño event, the ocean releases large amounts of additional heat into the atmosphere, contributing to shifts in global temperature and precipitation patterns.

Since meteorological records began in 1951, 22 El Niño events have been documented. The most recent occurred between 2023 and 2024. The year 2024 also became the hottest year ever recorded globally.

The renewed threat of El Niño comes as extreme weather events have become increasingly frequent in recent years. Heatwaves, droughts, floods and severe storms have affected communities across every continent, underscoring the growing impacts of climate change.

At the same time, public and media attention to the climate crisis appears to be declining. In February, the Media and Climate Change Observatory (MeCCO) at the University of Colorado Boulder reported that global climate-related media coverage in 2025 fell by 14% compared with 2024 and was 38% lower than its peak in 2021.

A similar shift can be seen in global risk perceptions. In January, the World Economic Forum released its Global Risks Report 2026, ranking geoeconomic confrontation as the world's top current risk, up from third place a year earlier. Extreme weather events ranked third on the list.

As the world braces for a potential new El Niño cycle, climate scientists say the combination of natural climate variability and long-term global warming could amplify weather extremes in many regions. They warn that maintaining attention on climate adaptation, disaster preparedness and emissions reduction will be crucial to limiting the human and economic costs of increasingly volatile weather in the years ahead.