The US-Iran deal: A lasting peace or a temporary reprieve?

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After nearly four months of intensive military, diplomatic and economic brawl in the Middle East, to the surprise of many, a deal was announced by the United States and Iran on June 14, halting the hostilities and ostensibly laying out a path to peace and stability in the region. While celebrating his 80th birthday, US President Donald Trump sent out a "congratulations to all" message on Truth Social and proclaimed to "let the oil flow." A signing ceremony is expected to take place on June 19th in Switzerland.

The details of the deal remain unclear, with parties and the media sending out pieces of information that reveal the chasm that still exists between the United States and Iran. In his post, Trump put a special emphasis on the "toll free opening" of the Strait of Hormuz and the removal of the US Navy blockade. On Iran's part, according to a Wall Street Journal report, its deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi said it was Iran's threats of attacks on Israel that put pressure on the US to reach a deal. And when the Prime Minister of Pakistan, whose country was acting as an intermediary, announced the outcome, the importance was put on the two sides declaring an "immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon."

A classic act: Declarations of triumph in a protracted conflict to temporarily stop the situation from dragging everyone into the mud. Trump's announcement, in essence, is an announcement of the return to the previous status, given that the no toll was imposed on vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict and no US Navy blockade existed. Iran's announcement could be technically true, but in the eyes of the US and Israel, said "threats" had been in existence for a very long time.

But to the real core issue, the nuclear program, negotiations are still needed. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on June 12 that the terms of dealing with its nuclear program would be finalized in the 60 days after the initial agreement is signed and that both sides could decide to extend that period, according to PBS.

The real question is: Can this "peace" last? For the general public, not just in the US but around the world, it has to. The war has already taken a great toll on the global economy and in particular on the livelihood of billions. In the US, the price of lettuce went up 24 percent in May, compared to a year ago. The International Air Transport Association slashed its 2026 profit forecast by about $18 billion. The long-term impacts on the general economy from the rising oil prices, the disruption in energy supplies and cargo shipments, the risk of runaway inflation and stagflation have not even yet been fully revealed.

And the cracks are already showing. According to the New York Times, Israelis of all political orientations are dissatisfied with the deal. Yediot Aharonot, a popular Hebrew daily, summed up the agreement in two words: "bad deal." Avigdor Liberman, former Israeli defense minister and a political opponent of the incumbent prime minister Netanyahu, called the deal a "catastrophe from Israel's perspective." The Jerusalem Post's editorial on June 14 called the deal "risk undercutting" efforts to weaken Iran and described the deal as a "dangerous one."

The Middle East is one of the most politically sensitive regions in the world, made even more complicated by the combination of historical animosity, religious beliefs, high natural resource concentration and the presence of great powers trying to manipulate their proxies. The sudden initiation of any kind of conflict, as well as a rush to ending it without thorough negotiations that take all relevant parties' interests into consideration, could spell dangerous and unforeseeable consequences for the region and the world.

The ceasing of military hostilities is a welcoming progress. China has repeatedly urged an immediate end to military actions. And negotiations going forward could be difficult and full of twists and turns. This temporary peace will be challenged. But, the lessons from the past several months should also be unequivocally clear: In today's world, hoping to use force as an easy way out is a pipe dream. It doesn't take your target out. It drags everyone down, including yourself.

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