How is climate tech preparing for El Nino's return?

The world is bracing for the return of El Nino, a climate phenomenon that could intensify extreme weather and push global temperatures even higher.

According to the World Meteorological Organization, there is an 80% chance that El Nino conditions will develop between June and August 2026, with the probability rising to more than 90% through at least November. Most forecast models suggest the event could reach moderate to strong intensity.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that El Nino would "pour fuel on the fire of a warming world" and stressed that early warning systems are essential to protecting vulnerable communities from climate-related disasters.

As countries prepare for potentially more frequent heatwaves, floods and droughts, artificial intelligence (AI) is increasingly becoming a key tool in climate adaptation.

China has been developing a new generation of AI-powered weather forecasting systems, including the "Feng" or "Wind" series (Fengqing, Fenglei, Fengshun and Fengyuan) of meteorological models.

Fengqing is a global medium‑range model that produces 10.5‑day forecasts within three minutes and has been operationalized nationwide. Fenglei is a nowcasting model that directly predicts quantitative precipitation, improving heavy rain forecasts by 25% and extending lead time to three hours. It supports four‑tier severe weather warnings. Fengshun is a subseasonal‑to‑seasonal model with 0.25-degree resolution and excels in international competitions. Fengyuan is a scientific AI base model integrating data assimilation and forecasting, serving as an open research and innovation platform. Together, the series addresses diverse needs – from disaster prevention to renewable energy and aviation – and marks China's fully independent, end‑to‑end AI forecasting capability.

China has also launched the MAZU Early Warning Cloud Platform, a national-level solution supporting the United Nations' "Early Warnings for All" initiative. The platform integrates meteorological monitoring, risk assessment, and disaster alerts and has been introduced in countries including Pakistan, Mongolia and Sri Lanka, helping strengthen local disaster preparedness.

Other countries are also turning to advanced technologies to cope with climate risks associated with El Nino.

In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration uses AI-enhanced forecasting systems and climate models to improve seasonal outlooks and extreme weather predictions.

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology has expanded its climate monitoring and forecasting capabilities as the country faces heightened risks of drought, heat waves and bushfires during El Nino years.

Meanwhile, the European Union has expanded the use of advanced climate forecasting through the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the Copernicus Climate Change Service. These platforms combine satellite observations, AI-assisted modeling and high-performance computing to provide seasonal forecasts that help governments prepare for El Nino-related heatwaves, droughts and extreme rainfall events.

As El Nino approaches, scientists say the challenge is no longer simply forecasting the weather but translating climate information into timely action. Around the world, technology is becoming an increasingly important line of defense against a warming and more volatile climate.