Tropical Storm Arthur, the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, formed on Wednesday near the Texas coast and is expected to bring life-threatening flooding across portions of the southeastern US, according to the US National Hurricane Center (NHC).

As of Wednesday night, the storm was centered about 15 km northwest of Galveston, Texas, and about 185 km west-southwest of Lake Charles, Louisiana, moving northeast with maximum sustained winds of about 65 km/h – above the 63 km/h threshold for a tropical storm, said the NHC.

Forecasters expect the system to gradually weaken and potentially dissipate by late Wednesday night or early Thursday as it moves further inland over southeastern Texas.

Despite weakening, Arthur is expected to produce widespread heavy rainfall and life-threatening flash flooding across portions of the southeastern US.

The storm is expected to produce 127 to 254 mm of rainfall. Isolated higher totals near 50 cm are expected through early Friday from the mid and upper Texas coast east-northeast into southern and central portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, along with western portions of Georgia and the Florida Panhandle, said the NHC.

"Very heavy rainfall is expected to fall across southeast Louisiana into southern Mississippi, where there can be significant and even life-threatening flooding, before spreading northeastward through the Carolinas and Georgia," said AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex DaSilva.

Significant rain is expected to last through Friday across the Southeast, and the zone of greatest risk will shift from far eastern Texas and Louisiana to Georgia by Friday, according to AccuWeather.

Potential impacts on the energy sector

Arthur's path runs near the Gulf Coast refining region, which stretches ‌from Corpus Christi to Pascagoula, Mississippi, and holds around half of US refining capacity of 18.4 million barrels per day.

Operators including major oil refiners and LNG exporters along the coast have been monitoring the storm.

A model from consulting firm Earth Science Associates ​based on past storms is forecasting that around 20,000 barrels of oil could be lost because of shut-ins at offshore platforms in the storm's path.

"Part of the past losses occur due to an abundance of caution for personnel and other dangers, and that is part of the data in the model, though ​for the current storm we haven't seen those actions, so it is likely to be on the low side of the forecast," ​Earth Science Associates Chief Operating Officer Tony Dupont said in an emailed response to questions.

(With input from Reuters)