UN warns El Nino could threaten global agriculture

The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) on Monday warned that a new El Nino event could develop in the coming weeks, posing significant risks to global agriculture.

The warning came as the FAO released a global map of agricultural high-risk areas. Based on an assessment of 41 years of satellite imagery, the agency identified the Sahel, southern Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia, the Central American Dry Corridor and the Caribbean as the regions most vulnerable to drought impacts associated with El Nino.

According to the assessment, some croplands and grazing areas in these regions face a more than 50% probability of experiencing drought in the coming months.

The FAO said the potential impacts could be more severe than in previous El Nino episodes due to higher global temperatures and the widespread presence of conflict and food insecurity in many vulnerable regions.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Monday that El Nino conditions could reduce India's monsoon rainfall this year to its lowest level in 11 years. Combined with the country's expanding ethanol-blending program, which increases demand for sugarcane, the weaker monsoon could significantly reduce India's sugar exports.

The report said the two factors together could remove millions of tonnes of sugar from the global market, adding further pressure to global food supplies.