UK set for seventh PM in a decade: Can Britain escape 'low growth + high debt' trap?

Editor's note: Zhou Jianjun is an associate research fellow at the Institute of China–Central and Eastern European Economic and Trade Cooperation of Ningbo University. The article reflects the authors' opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

On June 22 local time, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his resignation. Since the 2016 Brexit referendum, the United Kingdom has entered a prolonged period of political turbulence, with successive prime ministers stepping down one after another, turning 10 Downing Street into what observers describe as a "revolving door of politics." According to statistics, since 1835, the average tenure of UK prime ministers has been about 1,368 days. However, since David Cameron's premiership, all subsequent prime ministers have served significantly shorter terms than this historical average. The frequent leadership changes reflect deepening party fragmentation, the rise of populist sentiment, and weakening governance capacity. As a result, recent governments have struggled to maintain stability, and policy continuity has been severely disrupted. Starmer's resignation after less than two years in office underscores his inability to reverse the country's economic downturn and manage internal party divisions. The prospect of a seventh prime minister in a decade indicates that Britain's long-held reputation for political stability has been significantly eroded, while public trust in government has been heavily depleted.

Behind the frequent changes of leadership lies a grimmer economic reality. The UK is currently trapped in a structural dilemma characterized by high debt, sluggish growth, and constrained fiscal space. This "low growth + high debt" configuration has become the defining feature of the British economy and a key challenge for any incoming prime minister. 

In terms of economic growth, the UK economy expanded by 1.4% in 2025, slightly higher than the 1.1% recorded in 2024. However, this remains significantly below the revised growth rates of 4.8% in 2022 and 8.6% in 2021, indicating a clear downward trend. During Starmer's nearly two years in office, rather than recovering, the economy has shown signs of further weakening. On March 3, 2026, the UK Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) revised down its growth forecast for 2026 from 1.4% to 1.1%. It also projected growth of 1.6% in 2027 and 2028, followed by 1.5% in the subsequent two years. 

On the fiscal side, according to Trading Economics data, UK public sector net debt, excluding public sector banks, rose to 2.98 trillion pounds ($3.93 trillion) in May 2026, a record high. Meanwhile, government debt interest payments reached 11.7 billion pounds, an increase of 4.1 billion pounds year-on-year, marking the highest level for any May on record. This "low growth + high debt" dynamic has severely limited fiscal maneuverability, leaving little room for policy flexibility. In addition, population aging is pushing up healthcare and pension expenditures, while increased defense spending, including military assistance to Ukraine, further adds to fiscal burdens. These pressures are making it increasingly difficult for the UK to pull its economy out of stagnation.

Against this backdrop, attention has turned to potential leadership candidates, among whom Andy Burnham has emerged as one of the strongest contenders. A veteran Labour politician and Mayor of Greater Manchester since 2017, Burnham is widely regarded as a key representative of Labour's "Northern faction". Facing Britain's economic challenges, Burnham has proposed a policy agenda centered on the reindustrialization of northern England, advocating large-scale public investment to revitalize former industrial regions in northern England and rebalance the country's London-centric growth model. His proposal directly addresses long-standing regional disparities and carries a strong political appeal. 

However, under tight fiscal constraints, both expanded public spending and large-scale reindustrialization face questions about feasibility. With government finances already under significant pressure, further debt-financed investment could increase sovereign debt risk and intensify debt servicing burdens. Moreover, reindustrialization is a long-term process and cannot deliver immediate results. Britain's manufacturing sector has undergone prolonged contraction. A shortage of skilled labour, coupled with fragmented supply chains following Brexit and global trade tensions, has further raised production costs and weakened industrial competitiveness. While Burnham's proposals are politically attractive, they may ultimately struggle to materialise under the current structural constraints of elevated debt and a prolonged manufacturing downturn.

To break out of the current stagnation, any new UK government must confront both persistently weak productivity growth and mounting pressure on public services. Since 2008, UK labour productivity growth has averaged just 0.4%, well below its pre-2008 pace and behind major peers. The National Health Service (NHS) remains under severe strain due to capacity constraints, while social welfare systems are increasingly stretched. In many regions, local governments are facing financial distress. 

To break the deadlock, fiscal stimulus alone is insufficient. Instead, deep structural reforms are required. 

First, increasing investment in infrastructure to unlock long-term growth potential through improved infrastructure development.

Second, reforming the tax structure by broadening the tax base, including capital gains tax and property tax, to provide sustainable funding for public services.

Third, leveraging technologies such as artificial intelligence to enhance the efficiency of public services and redirect resources toward local communities. 

All these measures require cross-party consensus and long-term policy continuity. Only by setting aside partisan confrontation and embedding reform into a national long-term strategy—rather than relying on short-term political cycles—can the UK hope to break its current predicament and lay an economic foundation for ending the "revolving door of prime ministers".