Japan is the real saboteur of Asia-Pacific security and prosperity

Editor's note: Li Qiqian, a special commentator for CGTN, is an assistant research fellow at the National Institute of International Strategy, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Japan's military and security policy is undergoing a series of substantive shifts. The three new security documents adopted at the end of 2022 marked a restructuring of Japan's security policy framework. Since then, increases in the defense budget, adjustments to arms export rules, nuclear-related debates and expanding external military cooperation have had a profound impact on the regional security landscape. These developments deserve close attention.

History must not be selectively forgotten. Japan once inflicted profound suffering on Asian countries, China in particular, through colonial rule and wars of aggression. After the war, Article 9 of Japan's Peace Constitution clearly stipulated that Japan renounces war as a sovereign right of the nation, and that the threat or use of force shall not be employed as a means of settling international disputes. This was an important political foundation for the international community to allow Japan to return to the international system. Today, however, some political forces in Japan are attempting to whitewash its history of aggression, paying visits the Yasukuni Shrine where Japanese war dead including 14 convicted Class-A war criminals from World War II are honored, and even trying to break through the constraints of the Peace Constitution. In essence, these moves seek to alter and undermine the post-war international order.

First, Japan is accelerating its breach of long-standing defense policy red lines. Since 2022, Japan has repeatedly revised the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology and their Implementation Guidelines, expanding the scope of overseas transfers of defense equipment and technology. In 2026, Japan further relaxed restrictions on arms exports, allowing, in principle, the export of all types of defense equipment, including finished products. This shows that Japan is no longer content with the traditional narrative that the Self-Defense Forces are solely for homeland defense, as stipulated in Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution. Instead, it is gradually becoming an important link in the Asia-Pacific arms proliferation chain.

Second, Japan is sharply increasing its defense spending. In 2022, the Japanese government adopted the three new security documents, which set the scale of defense capability buildup expenditure for fiscal years 2023 to 2027 at approximately 43 trillion yen ($265.6 billion). On this basis, Japan's defense budget rose year on year from 6.8 trillion yen ($42 billion) in fiscal 2023 to a record 9.04 trillion yen ($55.9 billion) in fiscal 2026. Through supplementary budgets, Japan also achieved its target of raising defense spending to 2% of GDP two years ahead of schedule. The sharp rise in military spending in recent years has, to a certain extent, broken through the symbolic 1% defense budget ceiling that long represented Japan's post-war restraint.

Third, Japan is clearly shifting toward the development of long-range strike capabilities. The Ministry of Defense's fiscal 2026 budget overview lists reinforcing defense capabilities as a key area in the fundamental reinforcement of defense capabilities, with a relevant budget of approximately 973 billion yen ($6 billion). This includes 177 billion yen ($1.1 billion) for the acquisition of the upgraded Type 12 surface-to-ship missile, surface-launched variant, and its ground equipment. In fact, a ground-based missile with a range of around 1,000 kilometers has clearly gone beyond the scope of traditional coastal defense. It shows that Japan's so-called defense capabilities are becoming an important tool for breaking through the principle of its exclusively defense-oriented policy.

Fourth, Japan is seeking to revise the Three Non-Nuclear Principles. These principles have long been regarded as an important symbol of Japan's post-war peaceful path. However, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has openly avoided making a clear commitment to upholding them, while some conservative forces in Japan have also advocated policy discussions on allowing US nuclear weapons to enter Japan. For a country that once launched wars of aggression and suffered nuclear attacks, such a loosening of nuclear policy not only runs counter to its post-war commitments, but will also fuel strategic mistrust in the region.

Fifth, Japan is intensifying military collusion in the Asia-Pacific. Military cooperation between Japan and the Philippines has advanced rapidly. Since 2024, the two countries have signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement and the Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement, and in May 2026 announced the launch of negotiations on a General Security of Military Information Agreement. In addition, Japan is embedding itself in the US-led alliance network in the Asia-Pacific, increasing military coordination within the region and deepening military ties with the Republic of Korea, Australia and other countries through mini-lateral arrangements.

Sixth, Japan is repeatedly breaching its existing political commitments on the Taiwan question. In 2025, Sanae Takaichi linked a Taiwan contingency with Japan's survival-threatening situation in the Diet. The Taiwan question is China's internal affair and lies at the core of China's core interests. Japan once colonized Taiwan for half a century and bears an inescapable historical responsibility on the Taiwan question. Any attempt by Japanese authorities to interfere in Taiwan-related affairs is not only a gross interference in China's internal affairs, but also a challenge to the post-war international order and regional peace and stability.

Taken together, over the past several decades, the Asia-Pacific has maintained overall peace and stability, while economic interdependence among regional countries has continued to deepen. Against this backdrop, Japan's military capability buildup and alliance network expansion in the name of security have objectively heightened the risk of a regional arms race and created an unnecessary security dilemma. The facts show that Japan is the real saboteur of Asia-Pacific security and prosperity.

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