Burnham's Britain: Can Manchesterism work for the UK?

Andy Burnham has been in submarine mode as the days count down to him becoming the new UK prime minister, largely staying out of the public eye while fleshing out policy priorities and identifying the team he wants to deliver them.

On Thursday, as nominations opened for the Labour leadership, he briefly emerged to write an article on security for The Times newspaper, in which he called for the building of "a Britain that is more resilient, confident and principled."

And barring an unexpected and very stealthy opposing campaign, Burnham will soon have the chance to deliver on his goals – he's likely to be the only person with enough support to make the ballot, putting him on course be named Labour leader before entering No10 Downing Street on July 20.

As Burnham and his advisors plot his first moves, he has started to shrug off the joke that framed his initial career in Westminster: "A Blairite, a Brownite and a Corbynite walk into a pub. 'What would you like, Andy?' asks the barman." The Labour Party is a broad church, and the 56-year-old served most of its wings in government and opposition, before quitting parliament in 2017.

After nine years as a popular mayor of Manchester and earning the moniker "King of the North," Burnham voices his own priorities and values confidently – a vision of expanding nationwide what has been achieved in the northwestern English city.

Burnham's blueprint

Greater Manchester was a beneficiary of being an early target for devolution, which allowed it important "first mover" benefits, according to Oxford Economics, largely in the form of central government grants.

A focus on improving transport links, improving and expanding urban housing, and later investing in employment in new industries and knowledge-based growth – which started before Burnham became the inaugural elected mayor in 2017 – is the blueprint for his premiership.

Manchester's GDP expanded by about 3.1% annually on average in recent years, around twice the rate of the UK over the same period. As mayor he was open to foreign investment and partnerships with private companies, which was aided by his personal popularity in the region and the stability that afforded. 

His approach is known as Manchesterism or Burnhamism and has been labeled "business-friendly socialism."

Since returning to parliament by winning a by-election on June 18, Burnham has given only one major speech, but in it he set out an outline agenda to "rewire" the state with familiar themes – decentralizing power, taking key services into public ownership, giving young people new training and job opportunities and building more social housing – which will be partially driven from a new "No10 North" in Manchester.

That agenda is now being given detail by Miatta Fahnbulleh, among others, a new Labour MP who shares Burnham's belief that Britain – one of the most centralized countries in the world – needs to give more power to local and regional governments to grow more fairly and efficiently.

The belief that moving money and powers to local government is a necessary rebalancing act is not new in the UK, but delivery has proved patchy. In recent years, under Conservative leadership, Chancellor 

George Osborne drove a round of devolution which led to the creation of the very Manchester mayoralty Burnham won – he insisted a single figure needed to be accountable for the powers devolved – and Prime Minister Boris Johnson poured billions into his leveling up agenda.

That Burnham is following the same path, albeit more radically and making it more central to his message, is an indication that he will have to overcome obstacles and pushback to achieve his goals.

The broader situation will also be challenging: he'll be held to Labour's existing 2024 manifesto commitments, which he inherits, along with its fiscal rules and the constraints brought by increasing debt payments and welfare spending. 

Added to the inevitable domestic and geopolitical challenges of governing, he has only has three years until an election must be held and a questionable mandate for radical change.

Hard power

Beyond Britain's shores, Burnham's views are largely unknown and untested, perhaps a reason for his article on Thursday, in which he confirms veteran Jonathan Powell will remain as national security advisor.

It has also been reported that Burnham hopes to spend less time overseas than his predecessors, which could lead to a high profile appointment as foreign secretary.

In the article, he marries a call for Britain to "rebuild our hard power" with his domestic vision. He says Britain must use defense and other sectors to reindustrialize, and "generate economic growth and create apprenticeships and jobs in communities that have seen opportunities drain away."

He also calls for "reducing foreign dependency, securing inward investment and building new industrial partnerships with allies" and strengthening ties with European countries.

"Reindustrialisation through defence – and other sectors – is critical for both our economic and national security, building resilience in all our places. It will be a core priority for me," he writes.

It is also notable that one of his closest advisers is Jim O'Neil, the economist who famously coined the term BRIC and has been a strong proponent of the localizing agenda Burnham has put at the core of his agenda.

O'Neil, who may play an official role in a Burnham administration, suggested in an interview with Politico this week that the UK needs to rely less on the United States and strengthen ties with developing economies. He added that Britain "should be open to increasing its trade with countries like China."

So what will Burnham do in office? On specifics, we simply don't know. But as he prepares for power, his hope is to do things differently, both in parliament and in the country: localize, take power from the center, give cities and regions the chance to become stronger economic cores, and in doing so make a country more equal and resilient.

"Imagine" was a theme running through Burnham's keynote speech on his vision for the country – soon his ideas are likely be tested on a bigger scale.