A super El Nino event is expected to develop this autumn and winter and could potentially surpass the record-breaking 1997-1998 El Nino, China's National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center said on July 10, warning that preparations should be made in advance to address potential climate and marine disaster risks.

The center made the assessment based on comprehensive analysis of ocean monitoring data, atmospheric circulation patterns and forecasts from multiple models.

According to the latest monitoring data, the current El Nino event has shown typical warming characteristics. The warming first emerged this spring in the coastal waters off Peru in the eastern equatorial Pacific and gradually expanded westward.

The sea surface temperature index in key areas of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific reached 0.47 degrees Celsius in April, 0.94 degrees Celsius in May and 1.55 degrees Celsius in June. The region officially entered an El Nino state in May, with the warming rate accelerating significantly in recent weeks.

Compared with the same period of the 1997-1998 super El Nino event, the current abnormal warming intensity of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific has already exceeded the levels recorded at that time, according to the center.

Since late May, westerly winds in the western equatorial Pacific have continued to strengthen and extend eastward. Meanwhile, atmospheric convection has shifted toward the central Pacific and intensified, with interactions between the ocean and atmosphere contributing to the further development of the El Nino event.

The center said current forecasts from domestic and international dynamical, statistical and artificial intelligence models show a high degree of consistency, indicating that the event is likely to reach strong to super El Nino levels during the autumn and winter seasons.

The likelihood of the event setting a new historical record continues to rise, and it is expected to have significant and lasting impacts on China's climate, the center said.