Behind the Ren'ai Jiao flare-up: Manila's calculations ahead of China-ASEAN talks

A maritime confrontation between China and the Philippines near Ren'ai Jiao on Monday has drawn global attention as regional diplomats gather for the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, with the China-ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting set to take place on July 22. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is scheduled to attend and is expected to hold talks with Philippine Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro.

The timing of the latest confrontation is particularly sensitive, as it comes amid the Philippines' hype on the 10th anniversary of the so-called South China Sea arbitration award. Experts said the incident was not accidental, saying that the Philippines, as this year's ASEAN chair, is seeking to internationalize the South China Sea disputes within ASEAN, while portraying itself as a victim to gain diplomatic leverage ahead of regional discussions.

The Ren'ai Jiao incident occurred at around 9 a.m. on Monday when a China Coast Guard (CCG) patrol vessel was conducting a routine patrol in waters near Ren'ai Jiao. The CCG said a Philippine vessel that had been illegally grounded at Ren'ai Jiao deployed two rubber boats and approached the Chinese vessel at high speed in a dangerous manner. The Philippine vessel then attempted to encircle and ram the Chinese vessel despite repeated warnings from the Chinese side.

Though the Philippines accused China of using excessive force, portraying itself as a "victim", footage released by the CCG showed Philippine personnel were the first to take aggressive action against Chinese law enforcement personnel using paddles, long poles and other objects during the confrontation.

Read more: The facts and truth about Ren'ai Jiao

The Philippines: Start a fight and then play the victim

"The Philippine side approached the Chinese vessel during a routine patrol and even took action after receiving clear warnings from China. This is quite unusual," said Chen Xiangmiao, director of the Research Center for South China Sea History and Culture at the National Institute for South China Sea Studies (NISCSS).

Chen said the involvement of Philippine naval forces indicated that the move likely had tacit approval from the Marcos administration.

"From the perspective of Philippine policy, such an incident could help shape the atmosphere and agenda of the ASEAN foreign ministers' meeting. It could even provide an opportunity for countries such as the United States, Japan and the Philippines to issue a joint statement and use the incident to increase pressure on China," he told CGTN.

Ding Duo, director of the Research Center for International and Regional Issues at the NISCSS said that the Philippines was attempting to use maritime disputes to dominate discussions, amplify public opinion and create obstacles to China-ASEAN cooperation.

"Provoking first and portraying itself as a victim after facing countermeasures has become a familiar tactic of the Philippines," Ding said.

He added that the incident reflected differences among Philippine political forces and government agencies over how to handle the South China Sea issue, with some military forces potentially seeking confrontations to generate publicity.

Ding also pointed to domestic challenges facing the Marcos administration, saying declining public support and growing economic and social pressures may have encouraged the government to shift attention toward external disputes.

Dialogue remains important despite tensions

Against the backdrop of the latest confrontation, the upcoming meeting between the Chinese and Philippine foreign ministers has attracted particular attention.

Chen said the meeting is both a routine diplomatic engagement and an opportunity for the two sides to address recent difficulties in bilateral relations.

"The latest confrontation could become an important topic during the discussion, but the meeting is also aimed at managing maritime differences and laying the groundwork for a meeting between the two heads of state at the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting later this year," he said.

Chen stressed the importance of maintaining dialogue but questioned whether diplomatic engagement alone could significantly influence Philippine domestic politics and security policies.

"China has made efforts to manage the situation, but whether the Philippines can meet the expectations of the international community and regional countries remains uncertain," he said, adding that domestic factors involving the Philippine military, coast guard, police and security agencies continue to influence Manila's decision-making.

Ding also pointed to divisions within the Philippines. He said China and the Philippines have maintained communication channels and maritime consultation mechanisms, but domestic political differences have affected bilateral ties.

"China's position has always been consistent: if you provoke us, we will respond; if you want dialogue, our door is open. Dialogue itself can also serve as a restraint on anti-China forces within the Philippines," Ding said.

US seeks to show its regional influence

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has arrived in Manila for the meeting. A report by the Associated Press said Rubio's participation was aimed at addressing regional issues including "China's actions in the disputed South China Sea."

Following the maritime incident, the US State Department issued a statement condemning what it called China's "dangerous and aggressive" actions against Philippine personnel, while praising the "professionalism and restraint" of Philippine forces. It also reaffirmed US support for its ally, the Philippines.

Experts said Washington's response reflected both its alliance commitments and its broader strategic goal of maintaining influence in the region and containing China by using the South China Sea issue.

"In a multilateral setting, the United States wants to highlight its commitment to allies and demonstrate its regional influence. This incident provides Washington with an opportunity to shape the agenda," Chen said.

Ding said the Philippines' efforts to draw greater US involvement were linked to its anxieties over the future of its alliance with Washington.

"Against the backdrop of efforts to build a constructive and stable China-US relationship, the Philippines has deep concerns about whether its security commitments with the United States will remain unchanged," Ding said. "By stirring up maritime tensions, Manila hopes to keep Washington engaged and prevent the US from reducing its involvement in regional affairs," he added.

As the Philippines seeks to place the South China Sea issue at the center of ASEAN discussions, China has called on Manila to focus on regional cooperation rather than confrontation.

"The East Asian cooperation platforms are not venues for discussing bilateral maritime disputes," ‪Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian said on Tuesday. "The Philippines should fulfill its responsibilities as ASEAN chair by promoting dialogue and cooperation, rather than putting its own political interests above regional peace and stability."