Escalating conflict in the Middle East

Editor's note: Wang Jin is a Middle East expert from China's Northwest University. The article reflects the author's opinion and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The conflict between the United States and Iran remains ongoing, while countries such as Yemen and Iraq have become increasingly drawn into the hostilities. As a result, the security situation across the Middle East continues to deteriorate.

Over the past two weeks, the geographical scope of the conflict has expanded significantly. Since the renewed outbreak of hostilities between the United States and Iran in July, tensions have escalated rapidly, with fighting resuming in Yemen and Iraqi Shiite militia groups becoming increasingly involved. The United States and Saudi Arabia have subsequently carried out strikes against militia targets inside Iraq. Coupled with the recent drone attack on Egypt, these developments suggest that the conflict is spreading across the region, with regional actors increasingly realigning their strategic positions.

The renewed confrontation between the United States and Iran has reignited long-standing regional tensions that had previously shown signs of easing. In Yemen, the dispute over flights from Sana'a International Airport became the immediate trigger for renewed confrontation. Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government argued that direct flights to Tehran violated the 2022 Yemen ceasefire agreement and could facilitate Iranian support for the Houthis. Flights between Iran and Sana'a on July 3 and July 13 further heightened these suspicions. The Houthis subsequently imposed a blockade in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, contributing to the renewed outbreak of hostilities.

The conflict has also drawn Iraq further into the regional crisis. Iraqi Shiite militias maintain close ties with Iran and have long been viewed by the United States and Gulf Arab states as important Iranian partners. After the renewed fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, Saudi Arabia accused Iraqi Shiite militias of assisting the Houthis and, together with the United States, carried out strikes against militia positions inside Iraq. Although the Iraqi central government has opposed unauthorized foreign military operations on its territory, it has struggled to exercise effective control over the militias, while the groups have denied involvement in attacks targeting Saudi Arabia. This has further exposed Iraq's political and factional divisions and increased the risk of cross-border escalation.

More importantly, the widening conflict has significantly strengthened regional states' sense of strategic vulnerability. Continued fighting in Iraq and Yemen has placed both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea under mounting pressure, disrupting international shipping and raising concerns among Gulf Arab states and countries along the Red Sea coast.

The risks extend well beyond the region. Any blockade of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would threaten navigation through the Suez Canal, while disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz could affect global energy supplies. Egypt, as the principal country responsible for safeguarding the Suez Canal, may therefore face difficult strategic choices and could be drawn more deeply into the conflict. At the same time, Ukraine's support for the US position suggests that the repercussions of the Middle East conflict are increasingly intersecting with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, highlighting the growing interaction between regional crises and broader international security challenges.

Looking ahead, the conflict is likely to remain highly intense while continuing to expand geographically. The United States and Iran have yet to reach consensus on how the conflict should end, while fundamental differences remain over issues including the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program. A negotiated settlement is therefore unlikely in the near term.

Meanwhile, the arrangements underpinning stability in Yemen and Iraq remain fragile. The 2022 Yemen ceasefire agreement and the political arrangements surrounding Shiite militia groups in Iraq are both vulnerable to renewed pressure as the wider conflict continues. Rather than containing the crisis, their deterioration could create new flashpoints and further worsen the regional security environment.

In the short term, although regional actors including Pakistan, Qatar, and Oman remain willing to play constructive mediation roles, the rapid expansion of the conflict has already pushed the crisis beyond the bilateral framework of US-Iran relations, reigniting long-standing regional disputes. Key international waterways, including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz, are likely to remain vulnerable to disruption, posing serious risks to global energy production, transportation and supply chains. Consequently, achieving a comprehensive end to the conflict in the near future is likely to prove extremely difficult.

Over the medium to long-term, sustained international mediation and diplomatic coordination remain the most viable means of de-escalating the conflict. The key challenge for the international community will be to intervene promptly and effectively amid intensifying regional tensions, encourage the parties to manage existing disputes and prevent local confrontations from developing into a wider regional conflict. Its ability to do so will be a critical test of collective diplomatic capacity and the international community's ability to preserve regional stability.