First-half (H1) economic data from 31 Chinese provincial-level regions offer a closer look at how the world's second-largest economy is navigating 2026.

The picture is broadly resilient. All 31 regions recorded positive GDP growth, with most expanding by over 4.5%. While traditional economic powerhouses continued to anchor national growth, several central and western regions posted faster expansion, driven increasingly by advanced manufacturing, foreign trade and modern services. 

Economic powerhouses remain a stabilizing force

The largest provincial economies continued to underpin national economic momentum.

Guangdong and Jiangsu both entered the 7 trillion yuan club for the first time, reaching H1 GDPs of 7.23 trillion yuan ($1.01 trillion) and 7.04 trillion yuan, respectively. Shandong (5.32 trillion yuan) and Zhejiang (4.79 trillion yuan) followed, while Sichuan, Henan, and Hubei ranked fifth through seventh – placing three central and western provinces in China's top 10.

Growth performance among these leaders was equally robust. Zhejiang expanded 5.7%, while Shandong, Shanghai and Anhui grew 5.6% each. Jiangsu grew 5.2%, and Henan and Hubei each recorded 5% – all exceeding the national average of 4.7%.

Major economic provinces are the ballast stones for stable national growth, said Zhang Linshan, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Macroeconomic Research, noting that competition among leading regions is intensifying as Anhui joined the national top 10.

Meanwhile, the drivers of strength are evolving. Zhang Yan, director of Research Department IV at the Xi Jinping Thought on Economy Study Center, highlighted that major provinces are shifting from scale to innovation advantages. Strong high-tech manufacturing in Henan and Hubei, alongside robust foreign trade in Guangdong and Zhejiang, demonstrates how top provinces are both stabilizing growth and cultivating new quality productive forces.

Central and western regions accelerate their catch-up

Provincial data also indicate a steady narrowing of regional development gaps.

Xizang led the nation with 6.3% growth. Anhui, Henan, Hubei and Qinghai grew by 5% or more, while Gansu and Ningxia expanded 4.9% each.

Central and western regions have shown differentiated growth, with some leading nationwide and inland opening up gaining momentum, Zhang Linshan pointed out.

High-tech manufacturing has become a major growth engine in central China. High-tech value-added increased 26.1% in Henan and 36.8% in Hubei, where the optoelectronic information industry has become a key pillar. Western regions are also leveraging geographic and industrial strengths: Xinjiang's export delivery value from major industrial enterprises surged 2.3-fold, while Chongqing recorded an 11.8% increase.

Trade and innovation drive momentum

China's foreign trade in goods exceeded 25 trillion yuan in H1, up 16.9% year-on-year. Mechanical and electrical products accounted for nearly two-thirds of exports, benefiting provinces with comprehensive industrial supply chains.

Guangdong and Jiangsu remained key trade engines, while Zhejiang upgraded its trade structure. Zhejiang's foreign trade grew 8.6% (exports up 9.2%), boosted by expanding trade with emerging markets like ASEAN and Africa.

Anhui exemplifies how industrial upgrading drives trade. Its high-tech manufacturing sector contributed 55.9% of H1 industrial growth. Producing 1.69 million vehicles – the highest nationwide – Anhui saw its trade rise 34.3%, with exports of the "new three" (electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and photovoltaics) more than doubling.

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, noted that the AI supply chain accounted for roughly 22% of China's H1 exports and half of total export growth. This expansion spans core hardware like data-processing equipment to supporting sectors like power equipment and liquid-cooling systems.

Services and consumption add new momentum

Services represent another critical pillar. Nationally, the sector grew 5.2% in H1, accounting for 59.5% of GDP and contributing 66.1% of total growth.

In Beijing and Shanghai, modern services – such as information, finance and business services – led expansion. Nationwide, integrating advanced manufacturing with R&D, logistics and information services is unlocking fresh productivity gains.

Local governments are also unlocking domestic demand through new consumption scenarios. In Jiangxi, retail sales of communication equipment, office supplies and home appliances registered double-digit growth, alongside strong rural consumption.

Meng Xia, an associate professor at China University of Geosciences (Wuhan), noted that digital transformation, manufacturing-service integration and AI commercialization will further expand China's long-term growth potential.

The H1 data shows that major economic provinces remain a key force underpinning China's overall economic stability, while advanced manufacturing, foreign trade competitiveness and modern services are reshaping the landscape of regional economic competition. Looking ahead, experts believe expanding domestic demand, stabilizing foreign trade, upgrading traditional industries and nurturing emerging sectors will be key to sustaining the momentum of recovery and improvement across the country.