A record-breaking El Nino may be forming, potentially the strongest in 150 years

The ongoing El Nino event in the Pacific Ocean is continuing to strengthen and could become the most powerful in the past 150 years, according to the China Meteorological Administration (CMA).

Observations from the CMA's national climate center show that the central and eastern equatorial Pacific reached the threshold for El Nino conditions in May, and sea surface temperatures in the region continued to rise in June. Since July, it has been under monitoring as a potential strong El Nino event, and the probability of it developing into a super El Nino is increasing.

Forecasts indicate that the event is likely to persist until at least next spring, with the overall duration close to the historical average for El Nino events – around 10 to 11 months.

A global climate amplifier

El Nino is regarded as a global climate "amplifier" that changes the probability of extreme weather events, including heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall. Through interactions between the ocean and atmosphere, a strong El Nino can alter global atmospheric circulation, therefore reshaping seasonal climate patterns across different regions.

According to Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Center, historical data shows that El Nino affects China's climate differently at each stage of its development.

During the developing phase in summer, more typhoons are likely to form over the northwestern Pacific, which tend to be stronger, originate farther to the southeast, and make landfall in China with stronger intensity. They may bring stronger wind and rainfall in China's southeastern and southern coastal regions, alongside the possibility of typhoons tracking northward.

When El Nino reaches its peak in autumn and winter, southern China typically receives significantly more precipitation. As the event weakens during the following spring and summer, the Yangtze River Basin and areas south of the river face a high risk of flooding.

2027 may be the hottest year

According to the World Meteorological Organization's Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2026-2035), released in May, global average temperatures are likely to remain at or near record levels over the next five years.

"It is likely (86% chance) that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the warmest year on record, " said the report.

Based on historical data and experts' analysis, the effects of a strong El Nino often peak in the year after the event, said Chen.

Due to a delay in the ocean's impact on the atmosphere, the full impact on global temperatures usually becomes apparent six months to a year after El Nino reaches its maximum intensity, Chen added.