Japan's nuclear moves at odds with public opinion

Editor's note: Cao Cong, a special commentator for CGTN, is a doctoral candidate at the School of Global and Regional Studies, University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The latest public opinion poll conducted by the Japan Association for Public Opinion Research showed that 76% of respondents support maintaining Japan's Three Non-Nuclear Principles – not possessing, not producing, and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons, while 77% oppose any "nuclear sharing" arrangement with the United States. The findings reveal a growing disconnect between public opinion and the direction of the Japanese government's nuclear policy.

Despite clear public opposition, the Japanese government has repeatedly signaled its intention to reconsider the Three Non-Nuclear Principles. In July, Japanese Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi openly stated in an online program that Japan should discuss nuclear-related policies "without any taboo." Such moves have triggered deep concerns both within Japan and internationally over the future direction of Japan's nuclear policy.

The Three Non-Nuclear Principles constitute a cornerstone of Japan's postwar nuclear policy. As the only country in the world to have suffered atomic bomb attacks during World War II, Japan has long used these principles as the foundation for opposing nuclear war and promoting nuclear disarmament.

However, in recent years, Tokyo's security strategy has moved increasingly in a rightward direction, while the spirit of pacifism enshrined in its constitution has been continuously weakened. Japan has repeatedly increased its defense budget, allowed exports of lethal weapons, and developed the so-called "counterstrike capability," undermining its postwar "exclusively defense-oriented policy." Reopening discussions on the Three Non-Nuclear Principles represents another significant manifestation of the rightward shift in Japan's security strategy.

Some conservative political forces in Japan are using the changes in the regional security environment as a pretext to call for stronger Japan-US security cooperation and to support the US "nuclear umbrella," the "strategic guarantee" by the United States to use its nuclear arsenal to defend non-nuclear allied states. They support the Takaichi administration's reconsideration of the principle of "not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons," arguing that this principle could constrain the effectiveness of US nuclear deterrence.

These forces have attempted to invoke the logic of Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) to justify revising Japan's nuclear policy. However, this logic does not apply to Japan. MAD was based on strategic stability between two rival nuclear powers possessing large-scale nuclear arsenals, with deterrence maintained by ensuring that neither side could survive the consequences of a nuclear attack. Japan, as a non-nuclear state under the framework of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, does not possess an independent nuclear deterrent. Moreover, Japan's Atomic Energy Basic Law stipulates that the research, development and utilization of nuclear energy shall be limited to peaceful purposes.

It is worth noting that Japanese right-wing forces have also been repeatedly promoting the so-called "China nuclear threat." In fact, China has consistently pursued peaceful development, followed a defensive national defense policy, and firmly adhered to a no-first-use nuclear policy. It has maintained its nuclear capabilities at the minimum level required for national security, and refrained from engaging in a nuclear arms race with any country.

China's nuclear policy is not directed at any specific country and does not pose a nuclear threat to Japan. Portraying China's normal national defense development as a so-called "nuclear threat" is essentially a political pretext constructed by Japan to advance its military expansion.

What Japan should do is to reflect on the impact that its radical security policy shift will have on regional stability. If Japan, which already possesses almost all the materials and technological capabilities necessary for producing nuclear weapons, relaxes its nuclear policy restrictions further, it will inevitably increase regional security uncertainty.

The gap between government policy and public opinion has become increasingly evident. The poll showed that a clear majority of Japanese citizens continue to support preserving the Three Non-Nuclear Principles and reject any move toward nuclear sharing.

Opposition has also come from local governments and civil society. Since the Takaichi administration came to power, 82 local assemblies have submitted statements calling for the preservation of the Three Non-Nuclear Principles. The governors of Hiroshima and Nagasaki prefectures, which bore the brunt of the historical nuclear bombings, have both explicitly opposed any revision of the principles, and the Japanese group of atomic bomb survivors, Nihon Hidankyo, has also argued that Japan should not abandon the postwar commitment to peace.

Against this backdrop, the Japanese government needs to confront a fundamental question: Can national security be achieved only through military expansion and nuclear deterrence? As the only country to have suffered nuclear attacks, Japan possesses a unique historical experience and bears a special international responsibility. The role it should play is to promote nuclear disarmament and prevent nuclear proliferation, rather than gradually move toward nuclear competition.

If Japan abandons the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, it will not only damage the peace-oriented nation image that it has cultivated for decades, but may also undermine the international nuclear non-proliferation regime. It would also send a negative signal to the region and increase the risk of strategic miscalculation.

What Asia needs is not an escalation of nuclear arms deterrence competition but efforts to reduce nuclear risks and maintain peace and stability. Japan should recognize that regional security cannot be built on mutual suspicion and military expansion. Upholding its commitment to peace and safeguarding the international nuclear non-proliferation regime would better serve Japan's interests and meet the shared expectations of countries across the region.

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