Analysis: Why Typhoon Dolphin puts China on its highest alert

Typhoons born in the far reaches of the western Pacific usually die over the open ocean and never touch land. But Typhoon Dolphin, which took shape there in late July, has done the opposite: instead of fading, it traveled more than 6,000 kilometers, swelled into one of the strongest storms of the season, and kept that power almost all the way to the China coast.

That is exactly the situation Chinese forecasters are weighing. The red alert they issued on Sunday is not a routine precaution – it rests on a judgment that a storm from this point of origin, at this strength, has no prior counterpart.

After its landfall on Sunday along China's east coast, Dolphin became the first typhoon on record to form near the International Date Line and strike China at tropical-storm intensity or above, based on the analysis of the National Meteorological Center (NMC).

The center said the 13th named storm of the year made landfall at around 5:30 p.m. Sunday in Yuhuan County, Taizhou City, east China's Zhejiang Province, with maximum winds of 42 meters per second (Force 14) near the center and a central pressure of 945 hectopascals.

The red alert, issued at 10 a.m. Sunday, is the second issued this year. The first was released at 10 p.m. July 25, hours before Typhoon Noul made landfall in south China's Guangdong Province. Under NMC rules, a red alert is issued when a severe typhoon (Force 14-15) or super typhoon (Force 16 or above) is forecast to affect China's coastline within 48 hours.

At 8:10 a.m. Sunday, the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) raised its emergency response to major meteorological disasters – typhoons, torrential rain and severe convective weather – from Level III to Level II.

NMC chief forecaster Dong Lin said Dolphin stands out in three ways. First, the typhoon's long lifespan. The system was formed near the International Date Line and has traveled more than 6,000 km, with a lifespan exceeding 15 days – more than three times that of a typical typhoon.

Second, high and sustaining intensity. The typhoon rapidly strengthened to a super typhoon within 48 hours, peaking at wind speeds of 65 meters per second (Force 17 or above) – the second-most intense typhoon of the year. And it sustained super typhoon intensity for five and a half days and severe typhoon strength (Force 14 or above) for nine days.

The storm is also wide. The radius of its Force-7 wind circle is 420 to 450 km, and the circulation spans roughly 1,300 km, so the East China Sea has experienced strong gales for more than three days before landfall. Torrential rain across much of east China is expected.

Another NMC chief forecaster, Fang Chong, said heavy and torrential rains would spread from Sunday through Wednesday across large parts of eastern, central and northern China. Extreme rainstorms are also expected, accompanied by short-duration intense rainfall and storms with gusty winds.