Editor's note: Liu Chunsheng, a special commentator for CGTN, is an associate professor at the Beijing-based Central University of Finance and Economics. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

In a recent article published by Foreign Affairs, Indian scholars Shoumitro Chatterjee and Arvind Subramanian put forward the "China Squeeze" theory, arguing that after industrial upgrading, China not only challenges Western strengths in high-end technology sectors but also retains labor-intensive manufacturing industries, squeezing the industrialization space of Global South countries.

Superficially academic, this claim is flawed because it assumes a fixed size of the global manufacturing pie, implying that one country's gains necessarily mean another's losses. However, in reality, China's growth has expanded global economic benefits and empowered developing nations through market opening, infrastructure cooperation and industrial collaboration. A flawed foundation: Industrial development is not static competition

The defect of the "China squeeze" theory lies in its static interpretation of dynamic global industrial evolution. It imposes a rigid industrial upgrading order, arguing that latecomer economies can only industrialize after advanced nations withdraw from low-end manufacturing. According to this logic, China's full industrial chain layout disrupts the supposed gradient transfer and occupies others' development space.

Such narrative runs counter to basic globalization rules. Global manufacturing capacity is never fixed. Technological progress, rising market demand and cross-border trade continuously create new industries and growth momentum, expanding the global economic pie steadily. Industrial gradient transfer is not a mandatory concession mechanism but a market-driven adjustment based on factor endowments, cost advantages and supply chain compatibility.

China has long optimized its industrial structure. As domestic labor costs rise, numerous labor-intensive manufacturing sectors have shifted to Southeast Asia, South Asia and Africa. China's retention of certain traditional manufacturing links aims to stabilize global supply chains with complete supporting facilities, rather than crowding out competitors. The industrial bottlenecks facing most Global South countries stem from weak infrastructure, single industrial structures and systemic barriers in the international economic order, rather than China's industrial competition. Therefore, blaming China for their development predicaments would be misleading for public opinion.

Inclusive market opening: Empowering Global South economies via import dividends

Critics of China's industrial model focus solely on its export scale while ignoring its landmark market opening efforts. China is both a global manufacturing hub and a crucial, stable consumer market for developing countries.

In the first half of 2026, China's import volume reached 10.74 trillion Chinese yuan ($1.59 trillion) for the first time in the same period in history, a year-on-year increase of 22.1%. The growth rate was 8.7 percentage points higher than that of exports. China's imports have made remarkable contributions to world economic growth. In particular, capacity expansion and technological transformation and upgrading of Chinese enterprises have driven import demand for high-end equipment, with imports such as central processing units, integrated circuits and aircraft components registering notable growth.

Moreover, since May 1, 2026, China has implemented zero-tariff treatment on 100% of goods from 53 African countries with which it has diplomatic relations, a pioneering inclusive policy among major economies. This measure eliminates trade barriers for African agricultural products, aquatic goods and light industrial products, granting them full access to China's vast domestic market.

The policy delivers tangible benefits. It expands Africa's export channels, increases local fiscal revenue and employment, and drives the transformation from raw material exports to preliminary processing, laying a solid foundation for local industrialization. China has long lowered market access thresholds for Global South countries and expanded imports of their characteristic goods and resource products. This open trade model fully disproves the "squeeze" accusation, which overlooks China's inclusive opening dividends.

Infrastructure connectivity: The BRI underpins Global South industrialization

Sound infrastructure is the prerequisite for industrialization. Endowed with abundant labor and resources, some Global South countries fail to undertake industrial transfer due to backward transportation, logistics and energy systems. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) precisely targets these structural bottlenecks and fosters independent development capabilities, representing inclusive empowerment rather than zero-sum squeezing.

From 2013 to the end of 2025, cumulative contractual and investment volume under the BRI reached $1.39 trillion, channeling massive capital and technology into global infrastructure construction. Flagship projects such as the Mombasa-Nairobi Standard Gauge Railway in Kenya and the Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway – linking landlocked Ethiopia's capital, Addis Ababa, to the Port of Djibouti – have reshaped East Africa's logistics landscape. They connect inland regions with coastal ports, substantially cut logistics costs and shorten transit time, offering stable maritime access for landlocked countries.

These projects deliver long-term capacity building beyond simple engineering output. During construction and operation, China transfers technologies, cultivates local talents and improves industrial support systems, helping partner countries integrate into global industrial and supply chains.

The future of the global economy lies in win-win cooperation rather than rigid stock competition. Any biased discourse that smears China's growth and provokes division among developing countries will eventually be disproven by solid cooperation achievements.

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