Editor's note: Wang Yiwei is vice president of the Academy of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era and also director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University of China. The article reflects the author's opinions on the idea and not necessarily those of CGTN.

August 17, 2026 marks the 10th anniversary of the first Symposium on Advancing the Development of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) held in China. Over the past decade, four successive national-level symposiums have established phased strategic priorities, guiding the BRI from an ambitious vision into a mature, institution-based framework for global cooperation.

Launched in 2013 as an initiative centered on infrastructure connectivity, the BRI has continuously evolved. It has moved beyond traditional infrastructure investment toward a broader model of high-quality cooperation that integrates livelihood improvement, institutional coordination, green development, digital transformation and multilateral governance.

Recent research covering nearly 200 economies has delivered a compelling empirical verdict: rather than creating so‑called "debt traps," BRI participation has on average reduced sovereign debt pressure and curbed corruption risks for partner nations. The long‑circulated "debt‑trap diplomacy" narrative is largely a geopolitical construct, often detached from real‑world project outcomes and debt restructuring cases.

From infrastructure connectivity to institutional connectivity

Infrastructure connectivity remains the foundation of the BRI. Cross-border railways, ports, energy corridors and logistics networks have improved market access, connected landlocked economies and reshaped regional supply chains. At the same time, the growing emphasis on "small but beautiful" projects has expanded the initiative's focus toward practical benefits, including healthcare, clean water, digital connectivity, education and vocational training, directly improving the livelihoods of communities across the Global South.

Beyond physical infrastructure, institutional connectivity has become an increasingly important pillar of the BRI. Platforms such as the Secretariat of the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, the International Mediation Institute and the Belt and Road News Network have strengthened cooperation in dispute resolution, policy coordination and information exchange. These mechanisms have helped transform individual projects into more structured, rules-based and sustainable partnerships.

The evolution of the BRI reflects China's broader transition toward high-quality development. The 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030) represents a crucial stage in China's modernization journey, as the country seeks to consolidate its transition from rapid growth toward innovation-led and sustainable development. During this period, China is expected to continue expanding its middle-income population, shifting development priorities from aggregate GDP growth toward improvements in per capita income, productivity and quality of growth.

Within this broader transformation, Chinese-style modernization is also evolving from a domestic development model toward a framework with wider global implications. This requires the BRI to move from a first-stage model focused primarily on infrastructure expansion toward a second-stage model centered on shared development, sustainability and global cooperation.

From BRI 1.0 to BRI 3.0: Evolution toward high-quality global connectivity

The first phase of the BRI, or BRI 1.0, emphasized connectivity through major infrastructure projects and factor-based development driven by land, capital and labor. This stage laid the foundation for economic integration by addressing infrastructure gaps across regions.

The second phase, BRI 2.0, represents a shift toward innovation-driven, green, clean and sustainable development. It aligns more closely with internationally recognized standards and focuses not only on investment scale but also on development quality, environmental responsibility and social benefits.

Under this framework, the concept of spillover effects has become central to understanding the future direction of the BRI. These effects can be examined through the following three major dimensions.

First, the focus is shifting from development outcomes viewed primarily from the perspective of Chinese investors to broader benefits for co-building countries. The BRI increasingly seeks to strengthen local industries, expand fiscal capacity, create employment opportunities and enhance people's sense of gain through a combination of large-scale infrastructure and targeted livelihood projects.

Second, cooperation is moving beyond physical connectivity toward institutional and people-to-people connectivity. While infrastructure remains important, future cooperation will increasingly involve alignment of standards, rules and governance practices. China's applications to join frameworks such as the CPTPP and DEPA, along with the establishment of high-standard pilot free trade zones, demonstrate this broader effort to promote deeper economic integration.

Third, the BRI is evolving from primarily bilateral cooperation toward regional, cross-regional and multilateral collaboration. This reflects a broader transformation of globalization itself – from a centralized model toward more diversified, interconnected networks involving multiple regions, supply chains and development partners.

China's future development planning emphasizes integrated connectivity across land, sea, air and cyberspace. In this sense, the high-quality BRI represents a new form of globalization: not a center-periphery structure, but a distributed and interconnected network based on cooperation, mutual benefit and shared development.

This expansion of spillover effects extends beyond economics into social governance, institutional development and broader international cooperation. In this regard, the BRI has entered a new stage – what can be described as BRI 3.0.

BRI 3.0 places less emphasis on numerical expansion and more on substantive outcomes. While the earlier stage highlighted participation by more than 150 countries and over 30 international organizations, the new stage focuses on improving quality, effectiveness and long-term sustainability.

The future trajectory of the BRI will therefore combine bilateral partnerships with regional integration and cross-continental cooperation. It represents an effort to move from traditional economic globalization toward a more inclusive form of globalization characterized by orderly multipolarity, equitable cooperation and shared development.

Toward a new era of spillover effects

The global environment, however, remains challenging. Since 2022, economic fragmentation, rising protectionism and intensifying climate risks have disrupted international production networks. At the same time, some Western-led development financing mechanisms have been criticized by developing countries for attaching excessive political conditions to infrastructure support, limiting development options for the Global South.

Against this backdrop, the BRI continues to evolve. After more than a decade of practice, it has transitioned from large-scale infrastructure construction toward high-quality, sustainable and inclusive cooperation.

The 15th Five-Year Plan period provides a new opportunity to deepen this transformation. Future priorities include strengthening three-dimensional connectivity networks, balancing landmark infrastructure projects with "small but beautiful" livelihood programs, and expanding emerging areas of cooperation such as the Digital Silk Road, green industries and cross-border artificial intelligence cooperation.