Trump's 'economic war' on Iran faces question marks over impact and enforcement

US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced what he called the "most crushing economic operation ever" against Iran, one he said would amount to "economic warfare."

Experts said the move reflects Washington's attempt to shift from military pressure to economic coercion amid a deadlock in US-Iran tensions, while its actual impact remains uncertain. They questioned whether the sanctions can be effectively implemented and achieve their intended goals, noting that decades of US sanctions against Iran have failed to force Tehran's hand.

Trump said in a social media post that any country allowing its financial institutions, businesses, airports or government structures to support Tehran will face massive economic consequences. He called for an immediate halt to activities including "oil smuggling," currency exchanges, cash transfers, vessel registrations and the use of shell companies while urging US allies to join Washington in isolating Tehran.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent last week warned that Washington would soon unveil "unprecedented" measures to economically isolate Iran alongside efforts to block the Strait of Hormuz and prevent goods from entering or leaving Iranian ports.

From military pressure to economic coercion

Li Zixin, an assistant research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, said Washington's turn toward economic warfare stems largely from the limited effectiveness of military action and the difficulty of achieving further breakthroughs in the short term.

Since the conflict began in late February, the US military has rapidly consumed various types of missiles, with defensive ammunition stockpiles under particular pressure, Li said. At the same time, US assets in the Middle East and the security of American allies have faced mounting challenges.

Domestic political pressure has also pushed the Trump administration to adjust its approach, Li said. Since the conflict began, at least 18 US service members have been killed, nearly $40 billion has been spent, and US gasoline prices have risen by nearly 40% from pre-conflict levels. With the midterm elections approaching, the growing costs of the conflict have become a political burden for the White House.

"This is a strategic shift after military measures failed to achieve political objectives, rather than the administration's preferred option from the outset," Li said.

He also cast doubt on the potential impact of the sanctions, saying higher oil prices could create new pressure on global markets and American consumers. Meanwhile, Iran's decades of experience dealing with sanctions has enabled it to develop resilient mechanisms to circumvent restrictions, further limiting the effectiveness of economic pressure, he said.

Implementation remains uncertain

Qin Tian, deputy director of the Institute of Middle East Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, said the economic measures outlined by Trump largely represent a "repetition of old tactics."

"Currently, we have not seen the US government, particularly the Treasury Department, release specific details. Sanctions require concrete implementation procedures and mechanisms," Qin said.

He noted that many of Trump's announced measures on Wednesday are similar to policies Washington has already pursued in recent years.

"Due to the long-standing US sanctions regime, foreign governments, institutions and financial organizations have already significantly reduced direct economic ties with Iran. The room for requiring other countries to cooperate with US sanctions is actually quite limited," Qin said.

He also pointed to previous examples of gaps between Washington's policy announcements and actual implementation.

Shortly after returning to the White House, Trump signed a memorandum aimed at reducing Iran's oil exports to "zero," but that goal was not achieved in the following years. In February, the Trump administration also issued an executive order calling for a 25% "secondary tariff" on countries importing Iranian goods, including services, but the measure was never fully implemented.

"Although the newly announced measures appear aggressive, their actual implementation remains uncertain," Qin said.

He added that the US military campaign failed to force Iran into submission, while diplomatic efforts also failed to secure concessions from Tehran.

"Under these circumstances, Trump has returned to economic sanctions to demonstrate its tough stance," Qin said. "He may hope that economic pressure will eventually force Iran to make concessions, but the outcome remains highly uncertain."