China
2026.08.24 19:58 GMT+8

China accelerating its transition from a super seller to a super buyer

Updated 2026.08.24 19:58 GMT+8
Cheng He

China's enormous trade surplus has once again become a target of criticism, with some arguing that the country's export machine is flooding global markets and putting pressure on manufacturers elsewhere.

There is some truth to concerns about the sheer scale of China's exports. But looking only at exports — or even at the merchandise trade balance — gives an incomplete picture of China's role in the global economy.

China is not just the world's factory. It is also one of the world's biggest markets.

In 2025, China imported 18.5 trillion yuan ($2.6 trillion) worth of goods, making it the world's second-largest import market for the 17th consecutive year, according to Chinese official data. It is a major export destination for nearly 80 countries. In the first seven months of this year, China's imports grew 22 percent year on year, outpacing exports.

This is not only a natural consequence of China's economic development, but also increasingly the result of deliberate policy efforts to rebalance the growth model.

A huge trade surplus is not necessarily a sign of an optimally balanced economy. And China has recognized this.

China's merchandise trade surplus reflects genuine competitiveness. Chinese manufacturers can produce everything from electric vehicles and batteries to machinery and electronics at prices that consumers around the world find attractive. Its strength in manufacturing has become one of the country's most important economic advantages.

But a trade surplus also comes with costs and is not, by itself, a measure of economic health.

The Jiangsu Huai'an Container Terminal on the Beijing‑Hangzhou Grand Canal, Huai'an, Jiangsu Province, China, August 20, 2026. /VCG

Official data show that employees of enterprises in China worked an average of 48.6 hours per week in 2025. Even allowing for differences in statistical methodology, this points to a much higher work intensity than in many developed economies. OECD data show annual hours actually worked of roughly 1,300 to 1,800 hours in countries such as Germany, Japan and the United States.

Yet China's output per hour remains significantly below that of advanced economies. The contrast is revealing: China has built an extraordinary manufacturing capacity, but there is still substantial room to raise economy-wide productivity, workers' incomes and the value generated by each hour of work.

That matters for the country's rebalancing.

If productive capacity expands much faster than domestic demand, companies increasingly need to look overseas to absorb their output.

For China, the ideal outcome is not necessarily fewer exports. It is stronger domestic demand alongside strong exports.

There is another important distinction that is often lost in the trade-surplus debate: goods and services.

China may run a huge surplus in merchandise trade, but it continues to run a substantial deficit in services. In 2025, China's services trade totaled 8.08 trillion yuan, with imports of 4.46 trillion yuan exceeding exports of 3.63 trillion yuan by about 829 billion yuan.

A file photo of an export commodities fair held at Global Harbor, Shanghai, China, May 10, 2025. /VCG

As Chinese incomes rise, consumers are likely to demand more high-quality services — from travel and entertainment to education, healthcare, finance and professional services. A stronger domestic economy could therefore lead to more imports of services as well as goods.

In other words, a more balanced Chinese economy could actually mean China buys more from the rest of the world, not less.

This is important because international trade is not a zero-sum game. China's imports create markets for businesses and workers in other countries, just as China's exports give consumers elsewhere access to competitive products.

China's challenge now is to move from an economy that is exceptionally good at making and selling to one that is equally good at earning, consuming and investing at home.

The good news is that the transition is picking up speed.

China is making boosting domestic demand a central priority in its latest economic blueprint. Under the 15th Five-Year Plan, the country aims to increase total retail sales of consumer goods to 60 trillion yuan by 2030, from around 50 trillion yuan in 2025.

A key part of the strategy is to raise households' capacity to consume by increasing income from both employment and assets, stabilizing the property market and strengthening social security. These measures fit into a broader policy emphasis on "investing in people" as a way to strengthen domestic demand.

Beijing is increasingly seeking to leverage China's 1.4 billion strong consumer market, not only for domestic producers and service providers, but also for foreign companies and economies willing to engage with it.

China has spent decades becoming the world's super seller.

Its next challenge is to become a super buyer as well.

And that may ultimately be a healthier outcome not only for China, but also for the global trading system.

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