Editor's note: Wang Zhi, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is executive director and a professor at the Center for Studies on Central Asia and the Caspian Rim, Xi'an International Studies University. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily those of CGTN.

While Central Asia has remained relatively stable in a world marked by persistent turbulence, this stability is facing growing uncertainty as geopolitical competition intensifies. It is therefore worth examining what the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which has four out of its six founding members from Central Asia, and whose upcoming summit will be held in Bishkek in Kyrgyzstan, has contributed to that stability, and how it can do more in the future.

Central Asia between stability and competition

Central Asia has developed steadily while much of the world has been shaken by conflict and instability. The five states in the region – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan – have deepened regional reconciliation and connectivity. Regional trade has grown, and infrastructure projects such as the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway have moved forward.

At the same time, the region now faces more intense geopolitical competition than ever. Outside powers have multiplied their institutional platforms, with more than a dozen "C5+" formats vying over agendas, norms and investment. Contestation over the Trans-Caspian Corridor, the multimodal trade route connecting China and Southeast Asia to Europe, competition for critical minerals and the spread of sanctions and de-risking give Central Asia more choices yet more exposure to external agendas. Overlapping institutions open new room for maneuver, but they also raise the cost of coordination and the risk of entanglement in rival agendas. Corridor security, energy exports and labor remittances all remain dependent on forces beyond the region's control.

The value of SCO

In a quarter century, the organization has grown from six founding members into a partnership of 27 countries across three continents, becoming the world's largest regional organization by territory and population.

Security cooperation is the founding purpose of the SCO, which was among the first international bodies to put counterterrorism at the center of its agenda. Its legal and institutional base has widened steadily, from the 2001 Shanghai Convention on Combating Terrorism, Separatism and Extremism to the conventions against terrorism and extremism and the standing Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure.

At the 2025 Tianjin Summit, members decided to establish four security centers, moving coordination from ad hoc action towards routine operation. For member states on the frontline of the "three forces" – terrorism, separatism and extremism – and drug trafficking, this lowers the cost of acting alone and the risk that spillovers may turn into regional turmoil.

Development cooperation builds the material foundation of stability. The Tianjin Summit took the political decision to establish an SCO Development Bank, advancing local-currency settlement and reducing dependence on any single financial system. A development-for-security cycle is thereby set in motion, as development dividends weaken the incentives for conflict and deeper economic ties anchor stability.

Multilateral dialogue preserves Central Asia's room for maneuver, since the principle of non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-targeting of any third party allows states with differences to sit at one table, and the Shanghai Spirit of mutual trust, mutual benefit and equal consultation offers smaller states a shield for strategic autonomy.

Strengthening the SCO for the challenges ahead

Central Asia's future stability will face sharper tests. The SCO still lacks directly operable tools for sudden crises in member states, and new members such as Iran, India and Pakistan have complicated security cooperation. The weaponization of sanctions and the risk of disruption to regional production networks are rising, while competition over critical minerals is intensifying. Legal coordination also lags, as the gap between the consensus principle and divergent domestic laws creates obstacles when cross-border projects move to implementation.

To meet these challenges, the SCO needs strengthening. It should operationalize the security mechanisms, expediting the rules of the four centers and building a composite network spanning traditional and non-traditional security. It should also deepen development finance by establishing the SCO Development Bank, completing local-currency settlement and constructing a bulwark against decoupling, turning connectivity from political consensus into enforceable treaties and tangible projects.

And it should institutionalize governance by spelling out the legal meaning of consensus, harmonizing minimum legal standards and strengthening dispute resolution for cross-border transport. On this basis, the Global Governance Initiative proposed by China at the Tianjin Summit can elevate the SCO's regional experience into a more universal model of governance.

In 2026, the SCO has turned 25. Over these years, it has grown from a border trust mechanism into the largest trans-regional organization in the world. Its clearest contribution has been to show that stability can rest on shared governance through consultation rather than hegemonic order. Yet the challenges ahead mean the anniversary is not a finish line but a new starting point. Whether the SCO can strengthen itself in time, and whether Central Asia can maintain its stability amid intensifying competition, remains to be seen.

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