El Nino has strengthened and could become a "very strong" event in the coming months, the World Meteorological Organization has warned – raising the risk of floods, drought and extreme heat well into 2027. 

The central-eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean has seen warmer waters. Sea surface temperatures ran up to 2.6 degrees Celsius above average between late July and mid-August, and subsurface temperatures in some areas have exceeded 8 degrees Celsius above average.

WMO forecasts put the likelihood of El Nino persisting through February 2027 at close to 100%. 

"El Nino is being supersized before our eyes," said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, warning that the world is in a "danger zone of extreme weather."

Global impacts

"We are already seeing disruption and devastation from droughts and floods and we expect these impacts to increase as El Nino intensifies," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said.

The impacts will vary by region. Drier-than-normal conditions are expected across parts of Southeast Asia, Central America and northern South America, increasing drought and wildfire risks, while flooding is likely in parts of eastern Africa, southern Brazil and the southern US.

Major mobilization

El Nino is a natural phenomenon, not caused by climate change. It typically occurs every two to seven years, peaks between November and February and lasts around nine to 12 months.

But this one is different. The WMO has launched its largest mobilization in 50 years, teaming up with national agencies and UN partners to strengthen forecasts and early warnings and support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors.

"This exceptional El Nino demands exceptional preparation and response," the WMO said, calling for climate forecasts to be turned into early action.