China’s National Climate Center (NCC) said this week that a super-strong El Nino event is taking shape in the tropical Pacific, with its impacts potentially extending into the summer of 2027.

The NCC expects sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific to continue rising amid fluctuations, peaking around November and December. The peak intensity is projected to exceed 2.5 degrees Celsius, indicating a super-strong event.

Chen Lijuan, the NCC’s chief forecaster, said the event could surpass the three previous super-strong El Nino events recorded in 1982/1983, 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, potentially making it the strongest since records began.

Gu Wei, also a chief forecaster at the NCC, said China is likely to experience significant climate anomalies in the coming seasons as El Nino develops rapidly.

Gu said its influence may already be evident in this summer’s weather, with central and eastern China generally facing heightened flood risks.

Looking ahead, Gu said El Nino is expected to have a greater impact on China’s temperatures and precipitation through the autumn and winter. She forecast above-average winter precipitation across much of southern China, while overall temperatures are expected to be warmer than usual. However, frequent incursions of cold air could still produce sharp swings between warm and cold conditions.

Gu also warned that El Nino’s impact on China’s climate could become even more pronounced in the summer of 2027. Precipitation is expected to be generally above normal across central and eastern China, with particularly high risks of torrential rain and flooding along the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.

The NCC also stressed that the intensity of an El Nino event alone does not determine how severe its impacts will be in any particular location.