Editor's note: Li Hongchang is a researcher at the Sustainable Transportation Innovation Center and professor at the School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University. Liu Ziyi is a PhD student at the School of Economics and Management, Beijing Jiaotong University. The article reflects the authors' opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The 15th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Intelligent Connected New Energy Vehicle Industry (2026–2030) serves as a national, medium- to long-term specialized policy document for China's intelligent connected new energy vehicle (ICNEV) sector. It delineates the strategic direction of industrial development, key technical indicators, market objectives, and the supporting governance framework. 

The plan establishes milestone targets for 2030: an average energy consumption of approximately 11.5 kWh/100 kilometers for battery electric passenger vehicles, a 70% market share for new energy passenger vehicle sales, and a 40% market share for new energy commercial vehicle sales. 

The document outlines tasks across five strategic dimensions: technological innovation, industrial upgrading, infrastructure development, safety regulation, full lifecycle management of power batteries, and external opening-up. These measures aim to drive the green transformation of the automotive industry, with the objective of achieving carbon peaking in the sector before 2030 and facilitating the implementation of the national dual carbon strategy.

First, electric vehicles (EVs) demonstrate a significant advantage in energy costs.

The plan sets a certified test-cycle average target of 11.5 kWh/100 kilometers for battery electric passenger vehicles by 2030. Based on a residential slow-charging tariff of 1 yuan/kWh, the electricity cost per 100 kilometers is calculated at 11.5 yuan. For comparison, assuming a traditional internal combustion engine vehicle achieves a fuel economy of 8 liters per 100 kilometers with a fuel price of 8 yuan per liter, the fuel cost per 100 kilometers amounts to 64 yuan. Under these assumptions, the energy cost for EVs is approximately one-fifth of that for conventional fuel vehicles. 

The above figures represent an estimation of energy costs only and exclude vehicle depreciation, maintenance, and other expenses. The 11.5 kWh/100 kilometers figure is a certified test-cycle average target; actual vehicle energy consumption varies depending on driving conditions, ambient temperature, and vehicle model. Furthermore, public fast-charging tariffs are higher than residential rates, which will increase actual operating costs.

Second, the structural transformation of the market is driving carbon reduction in the transportation sector.

The plan proposes a target of 70% for the share of new energy passenger vehicles in total new vehicle sales by 2030. In the medium- to long-term, new energy passenger vehicles will continue to replace conventional fuel-powered passenger vehicles, thereby reducing fossil fuel consumption in the transportation sector. It is important to note that the emission reduction benefits of new energy vehicles are primarily realized during the vehicle operation phase; upstream manufacturing of power batteries still generates carbon emissions. Therefore, achieving carbon peaking in the automotive industry requires a coordinated green transformation across the entire industrial chain.

Third, supporting infrastructure and technological iteration are continuously improving product supply and user experience.

The policy promotes the coordinated construction of charging and battery-swapping infrastructure networks, focusing on resolving energy replenishment challenges in county-level areas and urban environments. Concurrently, core technologies in power batteries, electric drive systems, and intelligent connectivity are being advanced, alongside the implementation of Vehicle-Road-Cloud Integration (VRCI) and highly automated driving scenarios. While continuously enhancing energy efficiency, safety, and intelligence, the industry is also refining its safety regulatory framework to balance industrial innovation with risk governance.

Overall, the plan establishes a medium- to long-term development blueprint for China's intelligent connected new energy vehicle industry. Driven by technological innovation, infrastructure enhancement, and the development of a robust governance system, the domestic passenger vehicle market is transitioning into a phase dominated by electrification. 

Propelled by advantages in energy costs and green, low-carbon performance, new energy vehicles are progressively becoming the mainstream choice for new vehicle consumption. Concurrently, the industry is upgrading toward high-end, intelligent, and internationalized operations, consolidating its comprehensive supply chain advantages and propelling China's transition from a major automotive producer to a global automotive powerhouse.