Middle East tensions persist as Iran war strains regional security and oil supplies

The ongoing US-Iran conflict continues to reshape the security and energy landscape across the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump on Friday said the war would end soon and reiterated that Iran would not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. He also said domestic gasoline prices would fall back to previous levels, or even lower, once the conflict ends. Trump added that the United States is in contact with Yemen's Houthi group.

Meanwhile, the reported US military death toll in the conflict has become a point of dispute, while Saudi Arabia faces growing security pressure from Houthi attacks and increasing risks to its oil export routes.

Trump's latest remarks came as questions emerged over the human cost of the US-Iran conflict.

Citing six US officials familiar with internal Pentagon casualty data, the Washington Post reported on Friday that the actual number of US military deaths during the war in the Middle East is higher than the figure publicly disclosed by the US Department of Defense.

Five of the officials said at least 22 US service members had been killed, four more than the figure shown in the Pentagon's Defense Casualty Analysis System.

Another official put the number at 23 since the United States and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran on February 28, while noting that not all of the previously undisclosed deaths were directly related to the conflict.

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth later denied the report in a post on X, calling the report "a complete LIE."

The widening tensions are posing a particular challenge to Saudi Arabia, one of the world's largest oil exporters.

The US-Iran conflict has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, while escalating hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi group are threatening another major export route through the Red Sea.

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), about 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and petroleum products passed through the Strait of Hormuz in 2025, accounting for roughly one quarter of global seaborne oil trade. Since the US and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran in February, traffic through the waterway has remained subdued.

Saudi Arabia has sought to reduce its reliance on the strait by using the East-West Pipeline, which carries oil to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast. But that route has also come under pressure.

The Houthis announced a maritime ban on Saudi vessels transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait in July and later claimed attacks on Saudi vessels. They have also launched attacks on targets inside Saudi Arabia, including oil facilities.

Saudi Arabia's Ministry of Energy said on September 11 that the East-West Pipeline had been targeted in multiple attacks in the Riyadh and Madinah regions, causing injuries. The pipeline was subsequently shut down as a precaution.

The developments mean both of Saudi Arabia's major crude export routes face disruption risks, adding uncertainty to global oil markets.

Saudi Arabia's security concerns have also drawn attention to its defense ties with Pakistan.

Pakistan's military spokesperson Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry on Thursday vowed to go "to any extent" to defend Saudi Arabia, including helping protect the Islamic holy sites of Mecca and Medina.

The statement followed a new wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia. Saudi authorities accused the group of attempting to target Mecca with a drone, while the Houthis denied targeting the holy city and accused Saudi Arabia of "lying."

Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed a Mutual Strategic Defense Agreement in September 2025. Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye also signed the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement on August 7, under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries would be regarded as an attack against all three.

The pressure on oil transportation routes is already spilling into physical oil trading, while global inventories are being drawn down.

IEA data showed global observed oil inventories fell by another 95 million barrels in August. Since the end of February, inventories have declined by a cumulative 507 million barrels, equivalent to an average draw of about 2.8 million barrels per day.

Adam Ritchie, chief economist at Shell Trading, said the escalation of the Middle East conflict has caused the global market to lose about 1.6 billion barrels of crude oil and condensates, as well as roughly 36 million metric tons of LNG supplies.

Higher transportation costs are adding to the pressure, with cargo insurance and war-risk premiums for some vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz rising significantly.

Anders Opedal, CEO of Norwegian energy company Equinor, said prolonged disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies could tighten energy markets and drive sharp price volatility.