Opinions
2026.09.21 15:50 GMT+8

Why Sino-US trade defies zero-sum gravity

Updated 2026.09.21 15:50 GMT+8
Xu Ying

The national flags of China and the US in Geneva, Switzerland, May 10, 2025. /CFP

Editor's note: Xu Ying is a Beijing-based international affairs commentator for CGTN. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The latest China-US economic and trade consultations over the weekend in New York sent a resounding message to the world: Dialogue, not confrontation, remains the most viable path for the world’s two largest economies. Against a backdrop of rising deglobalization sentiments and intensifying geopolitical friction, the very fact that Beijing and Washington have chosen to sit at the negotiating table is a stabilizing force for a turbulent global economy.

The China-US economic relationship has long served as the ballast of the global economy. Together, the two nations account for over 40% of global GDP. Despite structural shifts, bilateral trade reached 2.76 trillion yuan (over $412 billion) in the first eight months of 2026, underscoring their deep economic interdependence.

This interdependence is not merely a statistical abstraction; it is woven into the fabric of global supply chains. In the semiconductor sector, for instance, the US relies heavily on China for its mature-node chips, while China depends to a certain extent on American advanced chips and electronic design automation software. In the consumer electronics space, Apple's supply chain remains deeply rooted in China, which still handles about 74% of its global iPhone production.

Attempts to forcibly decouple these highly complementary industrial chains have only resulted in fragmented supply networks and soaring costs, with US automakers alone facing an estimated $107.7 billion in added comprehensive costs in 2025 due to supply chain disruptions.

The New York consultations represent a critical pivot from "crisis management" to "institutionalized management" of bilateral trade. Spanning five days, the agenda reflects a pragmatic pursuit of balance between competition and cooperation.

At the core of the talks is a proposed $30 billion reciprocal tariff reduction framework. By lowering duties on non-sensitive goods, ranging from US agricultural and energy products to Chinese light industrial and textile goods, both sides stand to gain. For the US, this move could significantly alleviate the inflationary pressures that have long burdened American consumers and importers. Equally critical is the renewal of the trade truce agreement set to expire on November 10. Extending this truce is imperative to prevent a resurgence of punitive tariffs that would inevitably drive up global supply chain costs.

Notably, artificial intelligence (AI) safety was placed at the forefront of the agenda, preceding traditional trade issues. With AI development often compared to the nascent internet era of the mid-1990s, the strategic implications are profound. As the two undisputed leaders in AI volume and innovation, China and the US share a heavy responsibility to manage risks and prevent the fragmentation of global technological ecosystems. The US delegation's shift in tone from hawkish rhetoric to a willingness to engage in dialogue on shared AI risks reflects a welcome, pragmatic realization that technological containment is a dead-end.

People visit the permanent exhibition at the Zhongguancun Exhibition Center in Beijing, capital of China, March 25, 2026. /Xinhua

Furthermore, the advancement of a "bilateral trade body" offers a much-needed institutional channel to address mutual concerns regarding investment policies and security reviews, helping to insulate economic ties from the whims of political interference.

However, acknowledging these pragmatic steps does not mean ignoring the headwinds. The signing of secondary sanctions legislation by the US right before the talks, alongside the complex backdrop of the US midterm election cycle, highlights the lingering undercurrents of geopolitical maneuvering. Trust remains fragile, and the shadow of "small yards and high fences" still looms over bilateral tech exchanges.

Moving forward, the healthy development of China-US economic ties requires both sides to meet each other halfway. History has repeatedly proven that cooperation yields better outcomes than confrontation. The market economy is inherently competitive, but weaponizing the concept of "competition" to define the entirety of a bilateral relationship is a dangerous oversimplification.

Instead of viewing China's peaceful rise through a zero-sum lens, Washington should recognize that China's continued opening up has doubled the scale of the global market, creating a vastly expanded, rather than diminished, international space for American enterprises. The Big Bang Theory of cosmology tells us that the universe is expanding, it is not finite; similarly, in international relations, cooperative development expands the pie for everyone.

To sustain this momentum, Beijing and Washington must establish normalized dialogue mechanisms to prevent misjudgments, create "buffer zones" in sensitive tech sectors to avert total decoupling, and jointly champion the reform of the World Trade Organization to defend the multilateral trading system.

"Decoupling" is not an option; managing differences is the only realistic path. The positive, balanced outcomes achieved by the economic teams in New York are good news for the people of both countries and the world at large. As the world’s two largest economies, China and the US must shoulder their shared responsibilities, foster an open global economy and write a new chapter of major-country relations grounded in mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation.

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