Super El Nino set to become strongest on record

China's National Climate Centre said Tuesday that El Nino is rapidly intensifying and could develop into the strongest super El Nino event on record.

According to the center's monitoring, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific entered El Nino conditions in May 2026. Sea surface temperatures in the region are expected to continue rising, although fluctuations are possible.

At a press briefing in Beijing on Tuesday, Chao Qingchen, Director of the National Climate Centre, said the current sea surface temperature index and its rate of increase are significantly higher than those recorded at the same stage of the previous three El Nino events. She said the phenomenon is rapidly intensifying and could become the strongest super El Nino event on record.

The event is expected to influence China's climate from this autumn and winter through the spring and summer of 2027.

From October to November, most of central and eastern China is expected to see above-normal precipitation, potentially increasing the risk of weather-related disruptions.

From December 2026 to February 2027, temperatures across the country are forecast to remain above normal overall. But that does not rule out sharp swings in temperature, as cold waves could occur slightly more frequently. Precipitation is also expected to exceed normal levels, with southern China needing to remain particularly alert to periodic severe cold waves, as well as freezing rain and snow.

Chao added that extreme weather and climate events are likely to become more frequent, with temperatures significantly above normal and summer heat waves becoming more intense and affecting a wider area.