Super El Nino event expected to become strongest on record, around November

The El Nino event is continuing to develop rapidly and is expected to peak around November, potentially becoming the strongest super El Nino event since records began, according to the latest forecast by China's National Climate Center (NCC).

The event is expected to rapidly weaken and come to an end in the spring and summer of 2027, while continuing to affect China's climate and key sectors including agriculture and energy, said Chao Qingchen, director of the NCC, at a press conference held by the China Meteorological Administration on Tuesday.

According to NCC monitoring, the central and eastern equatorial Pacific entered an El Nino state in May 2026. Sea surface temperature indices in the monitoring area have continued to rise rapidly since then.

The NCC forecasts that sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific will continue to fluctuate upward, with the index expected to peak at between 3.2 and 3.5 degrees Celsius around November, forming the strongest super El Nino event on record.

Significant impacts on China's climate

"The rapid development of El Nino had a significant impact on China's climate during this year's flood season. Precipitation in central and eastern China generally followed a pattern of more rainfall in the north and south and less in the central regions, with flooding outweighing drought," Chao said.

The ongoing El Nino is expected to affect the climate of China and the world in autumn and winter this year and in spring and summer next year, she said.

Chao said that the impacts of a typical strong El Nino event have significant lag effects and are often most pronounced in the following year.

During the year when El Nino weakens, interactions between the ocean and atmosphere tend to strengthen the western Pacific subtropical high and continuously transport warm and humid air toward China. Combined with continued global warming and the decadal strengthening of the northern rain belt, this can contribute to stronger and longer-lasting precipitation events and heat waves in summer.

"China's climate is affected by multiple factors, including sea surface temperatures, sea ice, land snow cover and internal variability in atmospheric circulation. A super El Nino event is not the sole factor affecting the climate,"Chao said.

Impacts on agriculture and energy

Chao said that in the agricultural sector, attention should be paid to the possible adverse effects of above-average precipitation in southern China this autumn on the maturation, harvesting and drying of late-season rice, as well as the risk of waterlogging in farmland.

In the spring and summer of next year, attention should be paid to the potential adverse effects of persistent rainfall on crops including rice and rapeseed.

In the energy sector, Chao recommended monitoring the impact of intermittent strong cold waves this winter on heating demand in northern China, as well as the impact of widespread high temperatures next summer on air-conditioning loads and peak electricity demand.