Fighting between Yemen's government forces and the Houthi group has intensified in recent days, with Saudi Arabia and its allies stepping up airstrikes in support of the government. The escalation has opened new fronts along Yemen's Red Sea coast and raised the stakes around the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait.

But despite battlefield gains, analysts say neither side is likely to secure a decisive victory anytime soon. Instead, Yemen could be heading toward a prolonged war — potentially echoing the conflict that began in 2015.

On Tuesday, Houthi military spokesperson Yahya Saree said the group had carried out dozens of attacks against gatherings of Saudi-backed forces in southern Yemen's Lahij region. He claimed the attacks left more than 200 people dead or wounded, describing the reported toll as "unprecedented" in the recent fighting.

The Houthis also reported a sharp increase in Saudi airstrikes.

At least two explosions were heard in Yemen's capital Sanaa on Tuesday night, accompanied by the sound of fighter jets. The Houthis said Saudi Arabia had carried out airstrikes overnight on Sanaa and the provinces of Amran, Saada and Al-Jawf.

The group said 66 Saudi air and missile strikes had hit Houthi-controlled areas over the previous 24 hours, bringing the total number of such attacks since the latest military escalation to 1,642, according to its own account.

Government forces make gains along Red Sea coast

The latest escalation follows a series of advances claimed by Yemen's government forces.

A day earlier, government forces said they had recaptured the strategic Red Sea port city of Mokha after fierce fighting with the Houthis. They also announced that they had seized parts of Dhubab, a strategically located town near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, claiming to have secured "effective control" of the key waterway.

The Houthis rejected the claims, saying they remained in control of all areas they had recently captured. The group accused government forces of exaggerating battlefield gains to reassure their backers.

In an interview with Lebanon-based Al Mayadeen television, Mohammed al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi Political Bureau, acknowledged that government forces had breached Houthi defensive lines during Monday's offensive, but said the advance had since been halted.

"There was a breach, but we have plugged it," he said. Al-Bukhaiti also warned that the Houthis could target Saudi airports, seaports and other critical infrastructure if the fighting continues.

The escalation is also drawing wider regional attention. Following an emergency meeting in Riyadh on Monday, Türkiye and Pakistan agreed to deploy forces and military capabilities to Saudi Arabia under their commitments to the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement.

Al-Bukhaiti said the Houthis did not expect either country to directly enter combat inside Yemen, but warned that any foreign country joining the conflict would face retaliation.

Why the Bab al-Mandab matters

The battle is increasingly centered on one of Yemen's most strategically important areas: the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which links the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.

Analysts say both sides are seeking to gain the upper hand along the strait and the surrounding Red Sea coastline.

For Yemen's government forces, reclaiming all Houthi-held territory would be a daunting task in the short term. Securing strategic positions around the Bab al-Mandab, however, could be a more realistic objective – and would prevent the Houthis from turning their presence along the Red Sea coast into a long-term political bargaining chip.

For Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, containing Houthi influence along the Red Sea has both security and economic implications.

With the US-Iran conflict dragging on and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz facing continued disruption, the Bab al-Mandab has become an increasingly important route for Saudi oil exports. Expanding control along the Red Sea could therefore help Riyadh protect a vital outlet for its energy shipments.

Yet territorial gains may not translate into a decisive victory.

Aden-based political analyst Muqbil Naji said Yemen's front lines remain highly fluid.

"The map can change quickly. Taking territory is one thing; holding it and turning it into a strategic advantage is another," he said.

Naji said government forces could make further gains across the relatively exposed Red Sea coastal plain, but warned that the Houthis could use the surrounding highlands to regroup and launch counterattacks.

The Houthis could also continue to rely on missiles and drones to threaten Saudi territory and shipping. "Battlefield setbacks can weaken the Houthis territorially, but cannot eliminate their capacity to strike Saudi cities, oil infrastructure or shipping," Naji said.

A replay of 2015?

Gregory Johnsen, a fellow at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, said Yemen's government forces would struggle to defeat the Houthis decisively with their current ground forces and air support.

That could leave the conflict locked in a prolonged war of attrition.

Johnsen warned that the current situation could become "a replay of 2015," when a Saudi-led coalition intervened in Yemen to support the government against the Houthis.

The intervention failed to produce a decisive military outcome. Instead, the conflict continued for years before the Houthis and the Yemeni government agreed to a UN-brokered truce in April 2022.

Raiman al-Hamdani, a London-based Yemen analyst, described the latest escalation as the country's entry into "a more dangerous phase." But he also argued that none of the parties was likely to eliminate its rivals militarily.

The fighting could therefore intensify further before eventually returning to the negotiating table, he said.

(With input from agencies)