Editor's note: Fan Hongda, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is director of the China-Middle East Center at Shaoxing University, China, and a professor at the university. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Following an emergency meeting in Riyadh on October 5, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye announced the activation of the Mecca Alliance for Defense, the trilateral defense pact they had signed in August, and agreed to deploy military forces to Saudi Arabia. The aim is to strengthen their joint capacity to respond to and deter threats. Attacks on targets inside Saudi Arabia by the Houthi group, and the fighting in Yemen are important factors behind this move.

The implementation of the trilateral defense commitments both responds to the security pressures facing Saudi Arabia and reflects shifts in the Middle East’s security landscape. Riyadh had repeatedly requested direct US military support to counter Houthi attacks, only to be turned down time and again. Disappointment with US security guarantees has become an important factor driving Saudi Arabia's expansion of defense cooperation.

Activating collective defense does not mean that the three countries have decided to jointly engage in combat. The arrangements announced so far focus primarily on strengthening defense and deterrence. However, if the three countries go further and conduct joint military strikes against Houthi forces inside Yemen, the regional implications of such operations will require careful assessment.

Such measures may have some deterrent effect, but they are unlikely to resolve the conflict between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia, which has lasted for more than a decade. The successive wars in the Middle East in recent years have repeatedly demonstrated that military operations may alter the battlefield situation, but are unlikely to produce a lasting political settlement.

In the case of the Houthis, joint military operations could weaken their military capabilities, but could also provoke fierce retaliation. Moreover, given the interconnected nature of the region's several challenges and the complex relationships among the parties, limited military operations carry a substantial risk of escalating into a wider conflict. Whether escalation can be contained and how the operations will end should both be considered before force is used.

Furthermore, Yemen itself, where the Houthis are based, already faces a grave situation. The country has endured prolonged warfare since 2014, with devastating consequences for people’s livelihoods. Conducting further joint military strikes there could easily compound civilian hardship, intensify tensions among domestic factions, plunge the country into greater turmoil and very likely endanger global shipping.

At a time when shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has already been severely disrupted by war, any further deterioration in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which are both closely connected to the situation in Yemen, would place greater pressure on global energy transport and trade. 

The international community should therefore focus more on easing regional tensions. This requires constructive dialogue to end the conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis as soon as possible and help Yemen achieve stability.

This raises a further question: How can the Middle East build a lasting regional security framework? Over the past decades, crisis management led by external powers has sometimes temporarily eased tensions but cannot readily replace the regional countries' own arrangements for long-term stability and development.

After years of ad hoc crisis responses, countries in the Middle East increasingly recognize that building a regional security framework under their own leadership has become a necessity. Defense cooperation among Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Türkiye can be understood within this trend.

However, the Mecca Alliance does not mean that an effective regional security framework has already been established. Military cooperation can strengthen member states' capacity to respond to threats, but broader regional security arrangements must also address relations between the member states and other regional actors.

In a Middle East urgently in need of stability and peace, the Mecca Alliance should maintain communication with other regional countries and avoid forming closed, confrontational security arrangements.

Fundamentally, the successful construction of an autonomous Middle Eastern security framework depends on reconciliation among the regional countries. Without reconciliation, consensus cannot be reached, making it difficult to establish a security framework that benefits the region. If defense cooperation intensifies confrontation between blocs and draws more countries into war, even greater autonomy may not improve the region's overall security.

Therefore, as Middle Eastern countries independently build a new security framework, they should place particular emphasis on a development-oriented approach. They need to align immediate security actions with long-term development goals and assess the potential effects of current actions on future relations with neighboring countries, people’s lives and economic cooperation.

This is precisely what the countries and peoples across the Middle East have been widely hoping for in recent years, and China's initiatives align closely with these aspirations. China has long advocated advancing peace in the Middle East through dialogue and negotiation, supporting the regional countries in strengthening their strategic autonomy and building a security framework under their own leadership. When these countries achieve this, China can play the role of a peacebuilder and a development partner, supporting them in addressing security differences and consolidating the gains of peace by facilitating political communication and practical cooperation.

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